135 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) posted at 9:35 AM on Sun, Jun 09, 2024:
Key Events This Week:

1. OPEC Monthly Report - Tuesday

2. May CPI Inflation data - Wednesday

3. Fed Interest Rate Decision - Wednesday

4. Fed Press Conference - Wednesday

5. May PPI Inflation data - Thursday

6. MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday

It's Fed week with
(https://x.com/Kobeis...1523302730?s=03)

[dTraderB]

"Meanwhile, In June, the Fed started slowing its balance sheet shrinking (QT) of Treasuries from $60 billion to $25 billion monthly

IT IS A HUGE CHANGE BOOSTING MARKET LIQUIDITY

Overall, QT went from $95B to $60B per month.
https://t.co/HoLbwFHnqo

[dTraderB]

NVDA STOCK SPLIT
AAPL MAKE OR BREAK CONFERENCE

"Asian markets on Monday get their first chance to react to the global market fallout from Friday's U.S. employment report, which saw the biggest one-day rise in Treasury yields and the dollar in two months.


Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:
Japan GDP (Q1, final estimate)
Malaysia industrial production (April)
Indonesia consumer confidence (May)

[dTraderB]

"Apples Worldwide Developers Conference starts on Monday, June 10th, with a presentation at 1PM ET / 10AM PT. Heres what you can expect at Apples WWDC 2024 keynote.

AI, AI, and more AI
At WWDC, Apple is rumored to infuse its operating systems with AI with Siri being the focal point. According to Bloomberg, Apple has reworked Siri using large language models to help it better understand what users want and better respond to their queries. The new version of Siri will reportedly be able to take actions for you inside of Apples own apps, potentially making the assistant far more capable than it is today.

Apple is apparently going to brand the AI features as Apple Intelligence and build them in throughout its apps, Bloomberg reports. Other AI features might include AI summaries of messages and webpages and real-time transcriptions in Notes and Voice Memos, according to Apple Insider. A custom emoji generator is in the cards, and the Photos app will reportedly let you use AI to remove objects and people from images."

[dTraderB]

I also expect an IT TOP SPX 5350-5400 but I will not hold a big NET SHORT position until after this FED MEETING .... Small net short now but will close most LONGS during next week or two.

"The Real Norseman1 (@Norseman1) posted at 10:41 AM on Fri, Jun 07, 2024:
1/22/20 = 100% Cash (not short) tweeted it.
11/4/21= 100% Cash (light short) tweeted it.
6/7/24 = 100% Cash (light short) posted it(X now, do we still say tweet?).

Im probably early. Id prefer to not be 10 weeks early. We went on to make more ATHs post my going cash on the https://t.co/pOk8CCGt0j

[steadyquest]

Knock three times on the ceiling if you want me...

 

to print some fresh highs.

[dTraderB]

NVDA POST-SPLIT 120.84, almost flat
Will add LONGS below 120
AAPL UP but still not at 200 level

PUZZLED POWELL? DEEMS CLUELESS & FED MAY AGAON BE ERRING BADLY:
After Fridays jobs report shocker, its hard to imagine a bigger event than Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powells press conference on Wednesday for shaping the outlook for investors the rest of the year.

The stronger-than-expected number of nonfarm payrolls added in May, combined with higher hourly earnings, was enough to push up both two-year and 10-year Treasury yields by about 0.2 point each, almost equivalent to a quarter-point Fed hike.

Stocks edged down a little, but not too much. That suggests that even though the Fed may have less room for maneuver to ease borrowing costs, gains from artificial intelligence may still be able to prop up shares. Earnings from Oracle, Broadcom, and Adobe this week will add to that picture. Apples Worldwide Developers Conference, where the iPhone maker is expected to map out plans for AI on its devices, is also one to watch.

Unfortunately for investors, Powell is probably as puzzled as they are about the economy. His message so far this year has been consistenthe thinks rate cuts are coming, just not yet.

[dTraderB]

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
U.S. employment trends data
U.S. to sell 3- and 6-month bills, 3-year notes

[dTraderB]

FUNDSTRAT:
As Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee has previously observed, in similar historical precedents (non-bear markets in which the first quarter is positive for stocks but April is a down month, June has been positive for stocks 11 out of 11 times.

Macroeconomic data also arguably played its part in driving gains earlier in the week. We saw soft data readings in May ISM Manufacturing, May ISM Services, 1Q labor costs, and April JOLTS job openings. Lees perspective: Viewed collectively, the macroeconomic picture to me is showing softening price pressures and a labor market that is not creating upward wage pressures. In my view, thats what the Fed wants to see.

Despite a higher-than-expected jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday, Head of Data Science Ken Xuan pointed out in our weekly research huddle that a lot of other signs suggest to us that the labor market is cooling.

Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton agreed with the Fundstrat macro teams assessment: The data in the U.S. has slowly been getting worse, or disinflationary however you want to say it. Thats actually a very positive thing for US markets, because the broader economy is still in good shape. Its just that on the fringes, youre seeing things weakening ever so slightly. He added, To me, the broader-based stock rally has not really started yet. But I think that from a technical perspective, things are in place now for that to happen. We are seeing rates and the dollar start to plunge and that is a very good sign.

[dTraderB]

Closed ES SHORT 5342.25

FLAT ES
SHORT 1 NQ