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Risk Windows for the Week of 17 June & Is 2.7% the new 2%?


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 15 June 2024 - 09:13 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday June 17th and Friday June 21st with Friday having the stronger of the two signals.

 

Last week the Wednesday centered risk window caught the "fun" Fed spike.  More on that below.

TWU89bT.png

 

Speaking of spiked and the Fed, someone must have spiked Chair Powell's Kool-Aid before his presser.  He pretty clearly said that at least some of the BLS data is baloney and that 2.7% is a good inflation number.  It sure seemed like he was either high and happy on something or trying to set the stage for declaring victory in a subsequent meeting above 2% because not even the Fed believes the BLS.  I got bad news for Jerome, salaries and savings are cut in half in 26 years at 2.7%, easily within one's working career, so, no, 2.7% is not good enough.  But, yes, no one that has been doing the shopping for the last three years believes the BLS numbers.  

 

Regards,

Douglas 



#2 Douglas

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Posted 15 June 2024 - 10:51 AM

The SPX advance decline line has started to diverge with the index which is building my confidence in my May top call.

YAwSz9Z.png

 

But according to my EWave count for that top to hold the index should start to head south in a serious way in the next week or so at the latest.  That will take some yet unforeseen fundamental driver, so that bolt out of the blue requirement knocks my confidence back down to earth.  Oh well, in the hands of the Wall Street gods as always, or maybe just Zeus if a lightning bolt is all that's needed.

 

sBwlLas.png

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 15 June 2024 - 10:53 AM.


#3 robo

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Posted 19 June 2024 - 03:16 PM

Worth watching for sure....


Edited by robo, 19 June 2024 - 03:26 PM.

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