Jump to content



Photo

when you analyze the stock market, keep it simple as it works better


  • Please log in to reply
6 replies to this topic

#1 andr99

andr99

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,488 posts

Posted 18 June 2024 - 07:54 AM

I found this below on youtube and it reminded me of some Elliott analysis about irregular a-b-c-d-e-f-g-............._x-y-z correction, which convinces me as a whole book 

 

discussing the sex of angels.

 

 

the problem is to find the solution to the equation X^2 - X^3 = 12.  An endless sequence of mathematical relations follows to find out an answer that is more than obvious.

 

Here it is when you keep it simple :

 

X^2 - X^3 = X^2(1 - X) 

 

X^2(1 - X ) = 12

 

12 is equal to plus 4 multiplied for plus 3 or minus 4 multiplied for minus 3 , but we can eliminate this second possibility as X^2 can't be equal to -4  

 

So, the solution comes from : 

 

X^2 = 4 , 1-X = 3

 

which gives  X = -2 

 

One billion of complicated reasonings avoided and two minutes taken instead of half an hour.  

 

The analysis of the stock market is the same thing, it works only if you keep it as simple as you can, that at least is what I have come to learn over many years

 

and I will never forget it as long as I will be trading the stock market. 


Edited by andr99, 18 June 2024 - 07:56 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#2 andr99

andr99

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,488 posts

Posted 18 June 2024 - 08:04 AM

that is why I eliminated many years ago, some theories of stock market analysis that have many followers, but never worked for me. During the process

 

of elimination of these unsuccesfull theories, at some point I felt like those in the past that were searching the ''philosophical stone'', until I realized that I

 

was searching something that didn't exist and I gave up searching it. 


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#3 andr99

andr99

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,488 posts

Posted 18 June 2024 - 08:19 AM

and obviously at the same time I focused on what worked for me. What I found really precious is the so called pattern recognition, which you can't learn from books 

 

however, but more properly from experience that you add day after day, visualizing thousands of stocks' behaviors on your monitor. Adding to that some usefull indicator 

 

I have simplified everything and learned when to stay in and when to stay out, which is also very, very important. Never trying to guess, but entering always when odds 

 

are in favour. That's all. 

 

I had some time to write this and I did. Good trading everybody.  


Edited by andr99, 18 June 2024 - 08:20 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#4 Rich C

Rich C

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 368 posts

Posted 18 June 2024 - 04:51 PM

Thanks!


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#5 andr99

andr99

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,488 posts

Posted 19 June 2024 - 07:47 AM

and here is another one who ''likes simplicity'' LOL

 

 

yesterday my curiosity pushed me to click on the page at the previous first link I posted which randomly appeared on the youtube menu of pages I had on my monitor and now when I open youtube, it's full of mathematical 

 

so called ''challenges''. What a big mistake I made. However this second example of ''simplicity'' can be solved much more easily just posing  '' e elevated at square root of x  = t '' , so that the equation becomes 4^t = 7 which

 

can be easily solved in t using a property of logarithms which thing then easily lets to solve in x using again the same property of logarithms as before. Three minutes on the whole. As you can see, the world ''likes simplicity''

 

and that's why trading stocks is so difficult for the majority of traders. I won't stop my attention on any other ''challenge'' that randomly appears on my monitor when I open youtube. I could get a head ache with all that

 

''simplicity'', the same head ache I had trading in the beginning, many years ago, when stocks regularly chose the opposite direction to the one I had forecasted, LOL. In the beginning I was a perfect contrarian indicator, luckily

 

a prudent one LOL. 


Edited by andr99, 19 June 2024 - 07:51 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#6 andr99

andr99

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,488 posts

Posted 19 June 2024 - 09:24 AM

by the way, nasdaq and the others closed today. How can the West compete with China if our stock markets are closed so often ? 

 

China will eat the West.  


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#7 andr99

andr99

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,488 posts

Posted 20 June 2024 - 12:11 PM

however if one is not able to understand the market's path and future trend, he can always ask this guy below where the market is headed 

 

https://www.liberoquotidiano.it/news/sport/39664516/nostradamus-erede-tarot-euro-2024-chi-vince.htmlùù

 

Serbian magician Milan Radonji, alias Milan Tarot. He says  England is going to win the Football European championships (soccer in the USA) that are being held

 

in Germany. He says he is related to Nostradamus................LOL. He has a nice hat, however.

 

by the way England has never won that title and won't win it this year as well, as usual. As far as we are currently seeing they have not the potential to do that.     


Edited by andr99, 20 June 2024 - 12:12 PM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard