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Risk Windows for the Week of July 1st & the Summer Doldrums

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#1 Douglas



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Posted 30 June 2024 - 01:50 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the DJIA are Wednesday July 3rd and Friday July 5th.  At the risk of assuming resolution that the system really doesn't provide, I am tempted to narrow down the risk window to the afternoon July the 3rd and the morning of July the 5th, but I'll probably regret it.


Last week I incorrectly posited that the previous week's Friday June 21st risk window might have tagged a top when it actually was a short term bottom given the explosive rally on June 24th which quickly petered out.  The near close of Monday June 24th through near the open of Wednesday June 26th risk window did tag a sharp decline on Tuesday and a low of some minor degree early Wednesday morning, so it wasn't exactly a dud, but not a shining star either.  What the heck the Friday the 28th risk window identified is still up in the air - was it a high based on the turn early morning or the low late in the day?  I have no idea.  Monday will tell the tale a bit like that Friday the June 21st risk window.  Based on my EWave count it would be nice if Friday morning was a top and the DJIA goes sailing south on Monday or Tuesday July 1st or 2nd, but that's not a prediction, just convenient.





Today is the French election and this coming Thursday is the British version.  Short and not so sweet campaigns have left both French and English incumbents staring into the abyss but in completely different directions.  France to the right and the UK to the left, the common factor being strong leads for the party currently not in charge.  Change is in the air on this side of the pond and apparently in the US too given Joe's train wreck debate performance.  What that means for the stock markets is unclear and that uncertainty is probably not bullish.  The windless summer doldrums may turn out to be a bit more vicious than normal this year and with that still some hope that my negative Ewave count may yet survive more than a few weeks.