6 replies to this topic

[andr99]

https://finance.yaho...-142545348.html

 

in the Fall of 2022 when the stock market bottomed and I bought that bottom, most people were concerned because of tv information about inflation. Now ''we are getting

 

back to a disinflationary path''. I never give credit to what the media and the press tell me as I've come to learn the lesson over many years. When they depict a dangerous

 

perspective, it's time to buy.  

Edited by andr99, 02 July 2024 - 01:18 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

In fairness, we had a lot of bottom spotters going off then, too.

[andr99]

''in the Fall of 2022 when the stock market bottomed and I bought that bottom''.......to tell the truth, I didn't want to celebrate myself, I just wanted to say that I wasn't afraid 

 

and I bought with full hands. I tell that to everyone who was then and still is, terrified by any news about inflation. It's a prestidigitation game and those who move the stock market

 

are well aware of how human psychology works. So ''don't be fearfull and be happy''  is my way to handle the game. Those who move the stock market are less smart than what the

 

vast majority of people think.  

Edited by andr99, 06 July 2024 - 12:29 PM.

[andr99]

and by the way, no matter if real inflation is above what they declare. Even if it were 10%, which it's not, when you put your money on stocks that 

 

makes 100% and beyond per year, what do you care if you're really doing 90% instead of 100% ? It's a party and until it lasts, it's better joining it. 

 

Inflation will get back one day, because it is needed to devaluate some very big public debt, and they will do it, but why worrying a couple of years

 

before the ''redde rationem''  that might  occurr in late 2025 or beyond ? My thoughts. 

[OEXCHAOS]

Also, don't get me wrong, you did a masterful job of trading that move.

Additionally, your point on inflation is correct. It's not a simple, linear thing. Being too Bearish because of inflation can be costly. I've been profitably shorting the long bond for years now, but I TRADE the secular Bear. It's not nearly a one-way street to the downside. Frankly, I'm amazed that the bonds haven't done worse. Thankfully, I'm a technical trader first over and above even the most compelling fundamental case.

 

M

[andr99]

Also, don't get me wrong, you did a masterful job of trading that move.

Additionally, your point on inflation is correct. It's not a simple, linear thing. Being too Bearish because of inflation can be costly. I've been profitably shorting the long bond for years now, but I TRADE the secular Bear. It's not nearly a one-way street to the downside. Frankly, I'm amazed that the bonds haven't done worse. Thankfully, I'm a technical trader first over and above even the most compelling fundamental case.

 

M

 

you know, I'm gratefull to you and to this site that you created, because I don't know if I would have ever developed any form of even the smallest skill in analyzing the stock market, without this forum. 

 

Obviously, no one told me buy this or sell short that and I didn't ask for that to anybody, but I cannot say that the process of understanding how the stock market works, would have eventually worked out 

 

if I hadn't been here. So, thanks a lot for that. Grazie tantissime. 

[OEXCHAOS]

We all stand on the shoulders of giants!