2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

The days with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA for the rest of July according to my risk summation system are Friday July 26th, Monday July 29th and Wednesday July 31st with the strongest signal on the 31st.

 

Last week the late Monday to early Wednesday risk window marked in red below caught a sharp rally acceleration event in the direction of the trend.  Whether the Friday risk window will amount to anything will have to await trading this coming Monday.  The risk window system didn't catch the top early Thursday which is a bit of a disappointment but not really all that much of a surprise since turns often occur on days with very low risk window readings and Thursday's was zero.  My conspiratorial theory as to why this is so involves algorithmic trading which looks for low risk days to trap traders who watch all the same turn indicators that I do.  Week before last the Friday the 12th risk window which I thought was a top of some sort was more probably also an acceleration event of a lesser degree given the 500 point rally into that day.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

[cycletimer]

Hi Doug,

There was  a minor cycle pivot on Friday, July which I overlooked because my focus was July 15/16th which turned out to be a HIGH, LOW was yesterday.  Nothing noteworthy until August 6/7th, which happens to be a BIG cycle.  If we are rallying into that time frame, probably a good idea to establish hedges, or go outright short.

For the record, I went long $UPRO @ 77.92 about 5 min. before the market closed yesterday.  It's rare I hold anything overnight, much less the weekend but I am fairly confident we made a ST low on Friday.  

As you all may know I fade the gap using $SPX calls/puts.  I was able to fade-trade every day last week and my account was up +3.9% and the longest duration gap-fade trade lasted 7 minutes.  A couple of these trades lasted less than 20 seconds and I was out.  

Next fhe weeks will be volatile, as evidenced this past week. Buy & Hold for longer than a few days in this environment is very dangerous.  Short term trading and capital preservation should be emphasized from now until mid-year 2027, in all seriousness. 

[Douglas]

Cycletimer, thanks for responding.  I took a quick look out into August using my summation system and see possible risk windows of August 6/7, August 12 and August 16/19, so it would appear that our systems are lining up once again next month.  Unfortunately my system can't tell the magnitude of the turn only its existence. 

 

As you have seen in  my futile attempts at EWave counting, I believe the gigantic rally we have seen was a "B" wave correction made mammoth and impulsive looking by all the Fed funny money printing and the Treasury massive deficit spending.  As I have painfully learned over the years trying to keep old appliances running, you can only use so much duct tape and bailing wire to patch things before they finally fail unrepairably, so it is  with the economy and the funny money/deficit spending patches keeping it aloft.

 

I can imagine that the economic dislocations which may be caused by the instatement of a new administration after the election may be the trigger which finally brings this Jerry rigged economic system crashing down.  Since the stock market supposedly looks 6 months or so into the future, it should start showing the turn now if my crystal ball prognostications are correct adding more importance to any risk windows which may occur over the next month or so.  If this scenario does play out, that will make Donald Trump the new Herbert Hoover who was saddled with the blame for the Great Depression.

 

I'll see your 2027 and raise you to 2033 which Neil Howe notes in his recent tome The Fourth Turning is Here may be the end of the current fourth turning with the president elected in 2028 being the next Franklin Roosevelt who was credited with saving the day.

 

Regards,

Douglas