Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) posted at 0:45 PM on Sat, Aug 10, 2024:
The VIX Index hit a high close of 38.57 in the yen carry trade scare (much higher intraday). Some may wonder when it will get back to the low teens. That is not likely to happen for a very long time.
The VIX is very noisy, but its overall trend tends to echo what ST rates were https://t.co/8SMEQzM9XU
(https://x.com/McClel...8653026434?s=03)
"VIX high close 38.5: when it will get back to low teens? Not soon..."
Started by
dTraderB
, Aug 11 2024 04:48 PM
126 replies to this topic
#2
dTraderB
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Posted 11 August 2024 - 04:52 PM
Markets rapidly recovered from plunge, fell again, but recovered. BULL ALIVE & RALLY TO NEW ATH? Likeky, but this hanging over market:
Global: Military-Info (@Global_Mil_Info) posted at 5:43 PM on Sun, Aug 11, 2024:
IRAN-ISRAEL - 8/11/24:
- Israel is actively observing notable military preparations within Iran. Israeli intelligence apparatuses believe this indicates that Iran is preparing for a significant response against Israel.
- The IDF continues to assess that the upcoming combined https://t.co/iK3GoqFYgv
(https://x.com/Global...6076846156?s=03)
Global: Military-Info (@Global_Mil_Info) posted at 5:43 PM on Sun, Aug 11, 2024:
IRAN-ISRAEL - 8/11/24:
- Israel is actively observing notable military preparations within Iran. Israeli intelligence apparatuses believe this indicates that Iran is preparing for a significant response against Israel.
- The IDF continues to assess that the upcoming combined https://t.co/iK3GoqFYgv
(https://x.com/Global...6076846156?s=03)
#3
dTraderB
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Posted 11 August 2024 - 04:55 PM
... and this: FOREIGN MILITARY INVOLVED IN WAR INSIDE RUSSIA? When last this happened?
https://www.forbes.c...y-plan-to-stay/
https://www.forbes.c...y-plan-to-stay/
#4
dTraderB
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Posted 11 August 2024 - 05:01 PM
Small net short, closed qqq & spy calls, will stay short until after IRAN/ISRAEL issue off the main news
#6
dTraderB
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Posted 11 August 2024 - 05:18 PM
Close nq short 18525
#8
dTraderB
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Posted 12 August 2024 - 05:59 AM
Es sell limit 5388
#9
dTraderB
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Posted 12 August 2024 - 06:04 AM
"Markets pray inflation stays well behaved
"Should the incoming data continue to show that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive on economic activity and employment," Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday.
"Should the incoming data continue to show that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive on economic activity and employment," Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday.
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
New York Fed's inflation expectations survey
US Treasury sells 3 and 6-month bills
"Should the incoming data continue to show that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive on economic activity and employment," Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday.
"Should the incoming data continue to show that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive on economic activity and employment," Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday.
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
New York Fed's inflation expectations survey
US Treasury sells 3 and 6-month bills
#10
dTraderB
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Posted 12 August 2024 - 06:05 AM
WSJ: "Investors Borrowed Like Crazy During the Rally. Theyre Paying the Price.
By Gregory Zuckerman, Jack Pitcher, Vicky Ge Huang and David Uberti
Illustration: Johnny Simon/WSJ, Getty Images, Reuters, Zuma Press
They built over months: big bets on the Japanese yen. Complex cryptocurrency wagers. Investments in hot tech companies.
Common to all the trades were heavy doses of leverage, or borrowed money, which investors used to amplify expected gains. As markets rose through the first half of 2024, the investments generated windfall profits, inspiring copycat traders to get on board and pushing prices higher.
The tide has turned. Unrest has returned to global markets over the past month, and investors are in retreat from these once-unstoppable trades. While the market has calmed in recent days and the Dow industrials remain within 5% of their record high, traders caution that there is reason to brace for more upheaval.
Whats behind the tumult? Recent losses were caused in large part by a deleveraging, said Andy Constan, chief executive of Damped Spring Advisors, a consultant for macro hedge funds."
By Gregory Zuckerman, Jack Pitcher, Vicky Ge Huang and David Uberti
Illustration: Johnny Simon/WSJ, Getty Images, Reuters, Zuma Press
They built over months: big bets on the Japanese yen. Complex cryptocurrency wagers. Investments in hot tech companies.
Common to all the trades were heavy doses of leverage, or borrowed money, which investors used to amplify expected gains. As markets rose through the first half of 2024, the investments generated windfall profits, inspiring copycat traders to get on board and pushing prices higher.
The tide has turned. Unrest has returned to global markets over the past month, and investors are in retreat from these once-unstoppable trades. While the market has calmed in recent days and the Dow industrials remain within 5% of their record high, traders caution that there is reason to brace for more upheaval.
Whats behind the tumult? Recent losses were caused in large part by a deleveraging, said Andy Constan, chief executive of Damped Spring Advisors, a consultant for macro hedge funds."
