68 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

 

Bulls somehow gathered more momentum and resumed the run in the afternoon.   Now as this bounce has already passed the 0.618 Fibonacci retreacement I'd not be surprised if they make this another V shaped recovery before the Fed day  .............................................

 

Now it looks bulls may not be able to push ES up to 5700 before the Fed announcement ........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 September 2024 - 11:14 AM.

[redfoliage2]

Now it's all about if the Fed will cut by 50 bpts or 25 tomorrow.  There are justifications for both....................................

 

https://www.cnn.com/...ator/index.html

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 September 2024 - 02:41 PM.

[redfoliage2]

The Fed cut by 50 bpts........................

[redfoliage2]

EOM

Edited by redfoliage2, 18 September 2024 - 01:14 PM.

[redfoliage2]

So the initial pop upon the Fed announcement of a 50 bpt cut got sold and the market was disappointed at Powell's conference call when he said no following up on the rate cut that has to be determined meeting by meeting........................................

Edited by redfoliage2, 18 September 2024 - 03:03 PM.

[redfoliage2]

So the initial pop upon the Fed announcement of a 50 bpt cut got sold and the market was disappointed at Powell's conference call when he said no following up on the rate cut that has to be determined meeting by meeting........................................

i.e. more rate cuts depending on data .....................

[redfoliage2]

The ST target Sept ES 5700 (SPX 5700) has been met, and the market now is in extremely over-bought conditions ...........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 19 September 2024 - 09:33 AM.

[redfoliage2]

This is likely a ST top here .............................

[redfoliage2]

The market has been on a ST consolidation at highs, and dips are likely to be bought as SPX is likely to move toward its next target at 5800 before the Fed meeting on Nov 6-7 ........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 23 September 2024 - 12:19 PM.