183 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Am in NY, still not back to full-timing trading. A messy market ahead but nothing as bad as this maddening NY traffic gridlock when the useless UN brings in hundreds or thousands of "world leaders& their bloated entourage" to useless UN summit etc.

[dTraderB]

Net FLAT to small LONG but will add shorts & close LONGS if market rallies.

[dTraderB]

I like this analysis, not in total agreement because bulls still in control:
"
However, some aspects of the break-out were concerning, and we are about to enter one of the weakest periods of the year for stocks. Furthermore, a 50bps initial cut is not historically a good omen. In short, it's not a time to be complacent.

This week's article looks at how the S&P 500 can maintain the rally, and what could happen if it fails. Various techniques will be applied to multiple timeframes in a top-down process which also considers the major market drivers. The aim is to provide an actionable guide with directional bias, important levels, and expectations for future price action.

S&P 500 Monthly
The September bar has broken above the July high of 5669. This was always my minimum expectation and recent articles have repeated "the bigger picture view remains bullish" as neither the July or August bars indicated a top. Unfortunately, that bias and feeling of safety has ended, and a proper reversal can now form from a new high.

With 6 sessions left in the month (and the quarter), the September bar needs to hold above 5669 to keep a strong bullish look. Closing below the August high of 5651 and near the 5623 open would create a "doji" which indicates indecision and a potential reversal (if the October bar follows through lower).

Seasonality studies in election years show September closes down on average, and certainly a drop of 80 points to below the 5623 open is not out of the question in the next ..

Now the S&P500 is at new highs, there are only Fibonacci extensions and measured moves to guide us. On the monthly chart, there is no major level until 6124, although the 5879 level might be relevant. This is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the 2022 bear market on the logarithmic chart.

Lower timeframes reveal additional targets, and these are covered later.

As noted earlier, 5669, 5651 and 5623 are all relevant to bias at the September close. The September low of 5402 is the first major support.

The August bar completed the upside Demark exhaustion count and may still have an effect by hampering progress.

S&P 500 Weekly
This week's bar is clearly bullish, with a higher low, higher high and higher close. I'd be very surprised if the top is in and this premise means dips should be buying opportunities.

New highs were not made on Friday and the bar did not close at the highs of the weekly range, so the upside bias is not as strong as it could be. An "inside bar" likely forms, i.e. next week trades inside this week's range..." MORE HERE:

https://seekingalpha...hnical-analysis

Net FLAT to small LONG but will add shorts & close LONGS if market rallies.

[12SPX]

Added to my short last night bringing my average to 5775 and I was taken out while making coffee at 5770 for a 5 point profit.  Will start my new short at 5775 once again.  Yes could be an interesting week in the market and although I haven't done all of my analysis yet this could be an interesting expiration cycle as there are huge odds it will be a down cycle.  My call sells have rich premium as we start using the new super inflated contract.  The closer we get to the election I think the more exciting it will get for sure!!  

[12SPX]

There we go starting my short build at 5775, cmon 5780

[12SPX]

Already getting exciting, profit stop 5774 for the cash open, will sell higher...

[12SPX]

Awwww lets go crazy and make it 5773

[12SPX]

Well that was exciting, out for 2 points profit and back in at 5775....

[12SPX]

Hmmmmm profit stop 5773 sell above

[12SPX]

Might be one of those days, out for 2 points and back in at 5775 lol!!