122 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

 

So, my real time indicator for the McClellan Oscillator indicating this dip is being bought today..........................

And the Summation index turning up as well.  It's telling me the bull-run is to continue from here..............

 

This is real time summation index (not the delayed).  Tomorrow is likely an up day .....................

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 October 2024 - 02:27 PM.

[redfoliage2]

BTW, VIX is currently down almost a point, i.e. SPX puts getting sold and calls bought today........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 October 2024 - 02:49 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Yesterday's selloff was caused by ASML's disappointing earnings.  But we should treat it as a unique case as ASML's earnings were greatly affected by the Netherlands bans Dutch chip tool giant ASML Holding from servicing its high end products in China.  It's just politics, not based on supply and demand, and thus it's not applicable in general.  I see it's just a one-day event, not a trend...................   

So the dip from yesterday's odd event got bought today.  BTW, ASML's earnings report was leaked out yesterday, one day before it's scheduled date  ....................

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 October 2024 - 03:15 PM.

[redfoliage2]

I'd take the earnings guidance from NVDA ..........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 October 2024 - 03:23 PM.

[redfoliage2]

That's what caused yesterdauy's selling - ASML's share of sales to China is forecast to fall to 20% from 49% 

 

https://www.forexliv...early-20241015/

[redfoliage2]

Yesterday's selloff was caused by ASML's disappointing earnings.  But we should treat it as a unique case as ASML's earnings were greatly affected by the Netherlands bans Dutch chip tool giant ASML Holding from servicing its high end products in China.  It's just politics, not based on supply and demand, and thus it's not applicable in general.  I see it's just a one-day event, not a trend...................   

 

Well, TSM just reported its 3rd quarter earnings telling a totally different story, seeing no potential slowdown in chips demand.  As a behemoth in chips manufacturing TSM produces an estimated 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductor chips.  

 

https://finance.yaho...-054637360.html

 

We are going to see the market fully recovered from Tuesday's selling ...................... 

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 October 2024 - 03:12 AM.

[redfoliage2]

With the SPX 5800 back testing successfully done now we are more likely to see 5900 during this earnings reporting season as we are going to see more reports beating consensus.  BTW, the economy is doing better than many expected .......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 October 2024 - 09:15 AM.

[redfoliage2]

So intra-day profit taking is going on.  But I see this is more likely a classic move - the opening gap to be back filled then going up again ........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 October 2024 - 10:13 AM.

[redfoliage2]

So intra-day profit taking is going on.  But I see this is more likely a classic move - the opening gap to be back filled then going up again ........................

Unless some traders know something I don't.  We are in earnings reporting season and earnings surprises from large companies cause day to day moves on the market ........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 October 2024 - 10:26 AM.

[redfoliage2]

It looks Netflix is going to report after the cash market closes today.  It may not be good as currently NFLX is down more than 10 points for the day ..........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 October 2024 - 02:22 PM.