Nq short 20951.5
SEASONALLY BULLISH WEEK - Will SHORT
Started by
dTraderB
, Nov 24 2024 06:14 PM
90 replies to this topic
#2
dTraderB
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Posted 24 November 2024 - 06:47 PM
What Nvidia's Results Mean for Stocks
Last week, stocks recovered partially from the rather unpleasant declines from the week before. It was a light week for macroeconomic data, which arguably resulted in even greater focus on Nvidias earnings report. Although expectations were high, the chipmaker easily beat both top- and bottom-line estimates. Nvidia shares moved higher only slightly the next day, but Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee nevertheless viewed this as a good sign both for the company and for markets in general. To him, the companys outlook reinforces our view that the AI demand story remains intact. In this context, Nvidia trading up slightly post-earnings suggests there is still more upside for Nvidias share price near term. Perhaps just as importantly, the release of the earnings is likely to clear some of the uncertainty that has been acting as a headwind for markets as a whole.
Yet from his technical perspective, Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton expressed near-term concern about the reaction to Nvidias results and forward guidance.
NVDA -3.18%
was set to move up 8% potentially after its earnings report, but it has been pretty much range-bound, he pointed out. This is meaningful for equity investors, because in his view, as Nvidia goes, so goes the market. As Newton reminded us, Nvidia is now the largest stock within the S&P 500, so its important to keep track of where Nvidia is going at all times, even for those who dont have a stake in the company.
The key level for Nvidia is going to be 137, Newton said. To him, a move under 137 means were likely to have a stock market correction in the weeks to come, possibly to the tune of about 5%. Now thats not happening yet, and it might not, he reassured us. But it is something to keep an eye on. In the immediate term, Newton noted that his work seems to show the possibility of a rally into Thanksgiving, and in this, he and Lee are in agreement. (Lees Thanksgiving-rally view is illustrated in our Chart of the Week below.)
Look further out, however, and Newton is slightly less sanguine. You know, it could be setting up to be a more interesting December and year end than many people expect, only because the markets have already run up 15% in the last three months. So weve already sort of predated our so-called Santa Claus rally, he suggested.
Lee suggested, however, that with sentiment not yet at peak bullishness, there could be enough upside potential to sustain markets until the end of the year. As we all know, when sentiment reaches a bullish extreme, thats when we see equities priced to perfection. By several measures, including FINRA margin debt and AAIIs net bulls percentage, we are not there at that point yet.
The FS Insight team wishes all members of our community a Happy Thanksgiving.
Last week, stocks recovered partially from the rather unpleasant declines from the week before. It was a light week for macroeconomic data, which arguably resulted in even greater focus on Nvidias earnings report. Although expectations were high, the chipmaker easily beat both top- and bottom-line estimates. Nvidia shares moved higher only slightly the next day, but Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee nevertheless viewed this as a good sign both for the company and for markets in general. To him, the companys outlook reinforces our view that the AI demand story remains intact. In this context, Nvidia trading up slightly post-earnings suggests there is still more upside for Nvidias share price near term. Perhaps just as importantly, the release of the earnings is likely to clear some of the uncertainty that has been acting as a headwind for markets as a whole.
Yet from his technical perspective, Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton expressed near-term concern about the reaction to Nvidias results and forward guidance.
NVDA -3.18%
was set to move up 8% potentially after its earnings report, but it has been pretty much range-bound, he pointed out. This is meaningful for equity investors, because in his view, as Nvidia goes, so goes the market. As Newton reminded us, Nvidia is now the largest stock within the S&P 500, so its important to keep track of where Nvidia is going at all times, even for those who dont have a stake in the company.
The key level for Nvidia is going to be 137, Newton said. To him, a move under 137 means were likely to have a stock market correction in the weeks to come, possibly to the tune of about 5%. Now thats not happening yet, and it might not, he reassured us. But it is something to keep an eye on. In the immediate term, Newton noted that his work seems to show the possibility of a rally into Thanksgiving, and in this, he and Lee are in agreement. (Lees Thanksgiving-rally view is illustrated in our Chart of the Week below.)
Look further out, however, and Newton is slightly less sanguine. You know, it could be setting up to be a more interesting December and year end than many people expect, only because the markets have already run up 15% in the last three months. So weve already sort of predated our so-called Santa Claus rally, he suggested.
Lee suggested, however, that with sentiment not yet at peak bullishness, there could be enough upside potential to sustain markets until the end of the year. As we all know, when sentiment reaches a bullish extreme, thats when we see equities priced to perfection. By several measures, including FINRA margin debt and AAIIs net bulls percentage, we are not there at that point yet.
The FS Insight team wishes all members of our community a Happy Thanksgiving.
#3
dTraderB
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Posted 24 November 2024 - 06:48 PM
REUTERS: "America's divergence with the rest of the world - manifested in the strength of the U.S. dollar, the relentless rally on Wall Street and the significant rise in Treasury yields - is becoming more entrenched by the week.
The dollar has risen eight weeks in a row and on Friday hit a two-year high. According to analysts at TD Securities, U.S. funds in the past 13 weeks have captured over 70% of all developed market bond fund inflows and nearly 90% of all DM equity fund inflows.
While that will eventually pose issues for the incoming Trump administration in terms of how a soar-away dollar fits with President-elect Donald Trump's desire for a weaker currency and lower interest rates, Asian and emerging markets are feeling the heat right now.
Dedicated EM bond and equity funds posted combined outflows for a sixth straight week, according to Barclays analysts, a trend they expect to continue in the coming weeks. TD Securities analysts note that more than half of the EM equity outflow last week was from China alone."
The dollar has risen eight weeks in a row and on Friday hit a two-year high. According to analysts at TD Securities, U.S. funds in the past 13 weeks have captured over 70% of all developed market bond fund inflows and nearly 90% of all DM equity fund inflows.
While that will eventually pose issues for the incoming Trump administration in terms of how a soar-away dollar fits with President-elect Donald Trump's desire for a weaker currency and lower interest rates, Asian and emerging markets are feeling the heat right now.
Dedicated EM bond and equity funds posted combined outflows for a sixth straight week, according to Barclays analysts, a trend they expect to continue in the coming weeks. TD Securities analysts note that more than half of the EM equity outflow last week was from China alone."
#4
dTraderB
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Posted 24 November 2024 - 09:54 PM
About 3 hours trading es, nq, hsi, and euro.
Sell limit es 6025
Sell limit es 6025
#5
12SPX
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Posted 25 November 2024 - 08:45 AM
Isn't this a fun market to wake up to with the pajama traders taking the futures higher once again because the world is a perfect place!!! Added to my short this morning bringing my short average up to 5997...Interesting thing is that the McCllan Oscillator is back into overbought territory for the first time in a while and calls have suddenly taken a huge push higher also for some reason. Should be a fun week!!!!
#6
12SPX
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Posted 25 November 2024 - 08:49 AM
Might as well round it out, nice even 6000 short....
#7
12SPX
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Posted 25 November 2024 - 09:10 AM
Can't help it I'm adding some more, average short 6007...
#8
dTraderB
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Posted 25 November 2024 - 09:16 AM
Will also add SHORTS... NOT ONLY QQQ, SPY, DIA, other ETFs but a few stocks. Will add hedges later but RISK ON this week
Can't help it I'm adding some more, average short 6007...
#9
dTraderB
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Posted 25 November 2024 - 09:18 AM
Will open new TESLA PUT position above 365
#10
dTraderB
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Posted 25 November 2024 - 09:29 AM
Es long 6028.75
