Member
Posted 05 December 2024 - 06:05 PM
The purple cumulative volume and the red advance-decline line for the SPX are diverging with the index black line, so unless they "heal" in pretty short order, the risk rises.
The risk window today may have caught a double top turn down which jives with the divergence problem above. Hard to see how it wriggles out of this mess unscathed, so by the pricking of my thumbs...
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 05 December 2024 - 06:07 PM.
Mark S. Young
Posted 06 December 2024 - 04:31 PM
This time of year is a great time for a head-fake.
M
Mark S Young
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Member
Posted 06 December 2024 - 05:51 PM
For me so is January, February, etc. I'm easy to fake-out. As a certified old fart I'm just a sucker for classic Edwards & Magee chart pattern signals. I should know better. I do realize that liquidity is now the be all and end all indicator, moar funny money means higher prices. I know that, but what's the fun in no left tail risk. The Fed chopped that tail off, but I'm pretty sure that just like the lizards that I chased as a little boy, that broke off tail will grow back.
For a completely different way of looking at it, see the low volume periods in the QQQ below. Over the last year or so about 25% of the lows result in an acceleration (A) up and about 75% result in a top (T). Of course, I may be jumping the gun on the low. The volume could just continue to wilt putting that low out into the future, but surely not too far away. What will the current maybe low bring? Who knows, but if you got to bet, 3 to 1 odds say down for at least a little while.
Time to start grinding through the risk window calculations.
Regards,
Douglas
Member
Member
Posted 07 December 2024 - 12:59 PM
An ominous stat:
Thanks, very useful post. He also reposted this:
The remarkable surge in the S&P 500 over the past two years has truly surpassed my expectations, especially in the last twelve months. Given that this bull market has persisted long enough, those of us who have found ourselves on the wrong side of the trade must consider adopting a different strategy. My latest memo is in no way a throwing in of any towel, rather an effort to discuss and interpret the message from the market that may not actually be altogether that irrational:
Rosenberg is a very traditional macro-economist: that's, he follows traditional economic indicators which no longer work because:
1) they're fake
2) massive pools of liquidity coming from somewhere?
Member
Member
Posted 09 December 2024 - 10:03 PM
since 666 u guys have worried 2 much
Member
Posted 10 December 2024 - 01:00 AM
Don, worrying is a thankless job, but somebody's got to do it. I fully recognize that the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent, but that doesn't mean that the market isn't nuts, it just means that it's peanuts and not yet coconuts. Trying to spot the ultimate crescendo in this insane opera is admittedly a fool's errand, but only fools will be left standing after the music finally breaks with bulls reduced to hamburger. The trick is to be the final fool and not the first one.
Regards,
Douglas
