... may not burst soon but...
JESSE FELDER: In The Financial Times this week, Ruchir Sharma (chair of Rockefeller International) argues that, America is over-owned, overvalued and overhyped to a degree never seen before.
‘The mother of all bubbles’
Started by
dTraderB
, Dec 08 2024 06:32 PM
120 replies to this topic
#2
dTraderB
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Posted 08 December 2024 - 06:34 PM
"U.S. dominance over global financial markets has reached extreme levels, pointing to a bubble of epic proportions, according to Ruchir Sharma, chair of Rockefeller International.
In a column in the Financial Times last week, the market expert said investors around the world are putting more money in a single country than ever before."
Its as if America is the only nation worth investing in. Travelling in Asia and Europe, I keep coming across investors who seem overawed by the global giant. In Mumbai, financial advisers are pressing their clients to diversify outside of India by buying the one market thats even more expensive America. In Singapore, the host of a lunch with wealth managers asked them: Anyone here who does not own Nvidia? Not a single hand went up.
This is not a bubble in US markets, its mania in global markets. At the height of the dotcom bubble in 2000, US stocks were more expensively valued than they are now. But the US market did not trade at nearly so vast a premium to the rest of the world.
Nor is this just AI mania by a new name. On indices that weight stocks equally regardless of size and correct for the domination of Big Tech, the US has outperformed the rest of the world by more than four to one since 2009.
Some of the premium is rational. Compared to Europe and Japan, the US economy is growing faster. Compared to many other developing nations, however, it is slower. Yet it commands a premium not seen since the depths of the financial crisis that gripped emerging markets in 1998.
https://www.ft.com/c...0c-9557d7c85fc0
In a column in the Financial Times last week, the market expert said investors around the world are putting more money in a single country than ever before."
Its as if America is the only nation worth investing in. Travelling in Asia and Europe, I keep coming across investors who seem overawed by the global giant. In Mumbai, financial advisers are pressing their clients to diversify outside of India by buying the one market thats even more expensive America. In Singapore, the host of a lunch with wealth managers asked them: Anyone here who does not own Nvidia? Not a single hand went up.
This is not a bubble in US markets, its mania in global markets. At the height of the dotcom bubble in 2000, US stocks were more expensively valued than they are now. But the US market did not trade at nearly so vast a premium to the rest of the world.
Nor is this just AI mania by a new name. On indices that weight stocks equally regardless of size and correct for the domination of Big Tech, the US has outperformed the rest of the world by more than four to one since 2009.
Some of the premium is rational. Compared to Europe and Japan, the US economy is growing faster. Compared to many other developing nations, however, it is slower. Yet it commands a premium not seen since the depths of the financial crisis that gripped emerging markets in 1998.
https://www.ft.com/c...0c-9557d7c85fc0
... may not burst soon but...
JESSE FELDER: In The Financial Times this week, Ruchir Sharma (chair of Rockefeller International) argues that, America is over-owned, overvalued and overhyped to a degree never seen before.
Edited by dTraderB, 08 December 2024 - 06:35 PM.
#3
dTraderB
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Posted 08 December 2024 - 06:37 PM
"...After massive stock gains in 2023 and this year, Wall Street expects the good times to keep rolling in 2025. Bank of America sees the S&P 500 reaching 6,666 by the end of next year, and CFRA sees it hitting 6,585, with both representing upside of about 8%. And market guru Ed Yardeni has a target of 7,000 by then, indicating a 15% surge."
https://fortune.com/...-stock-outlook/
https://fortune.com/...-stock-outlook/
#4
dTraderB
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Posted 08 December 2024 - 06:40 PM
"...
Mark Hulbert notes that the Value Line Median Appreciation Potential (VLMAP) has now reached an extreme that has been associated with relatively poor equity returns over the following 1-5 years.
"...Warren Pies points out that, Wall Street strategists spent 2024 with targets well below the S&P 500. Next year, though, strategists are poised to lift their 2025 targets by 20% (vs 2024 marks) and 11% above the spot S&P 500 (~6,700). This is the largest surge in strategist optimism on record.
https://thefelderrep..._eid=37d888a35c
Mark Hulbert notes that the Value Line Median Appreciation Potential (VLMAP) has now reached an extreme that has been associated with relatively poor equity returns over the following 1-5 years.
"...Warren Pies points out that, Wall Street strategists spent 2024 with targets well below the S&P 500. Next year, though, strategists are poised to lift their 2025 targets by 20% (vs 2024 marks) and 11% above the spot S&P 500 (~6,700). This is the largest surge in strategist optimism on record.
https://thefelderrep..._eid=37d888a35c
#5
dTraderB
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#6
dTraderB
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Posted 08 December 2024 - 06:46 PM
Her poll is 57-43, very bullish:
https://x.com/Chartf...365571769929988
Helene's TWITTER account was hacked, lost it, but new account here:
https://x.com/Chartf...365571769929988
https://x.com/Chartf...365571769929988
Helene's TWITTER account was hacked, lost it, but new account here:
https://x.com/Chartf...365571769929988
#7
dTraderB
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Posted 08 December 2024 - 06:55 PM
Closed es long 6102
Es long 6090.75
Close es 6103.5
Holding shorts, hedging a bit
Es long 6095Ym 44715 long
#8
dTraderB
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Posted 09 December 2024 - 05:16 AM
Very active overnight session especially in Chinese & HK markeys.
Nq long 21627
Ym long 44690
Es buy limit 6085
Nq long 21627
Ym long 44690
Es buy limit 6085
Closed es long 6102
Es long 6090.75
Close es 6103.5
Holding shorts, hedging a bit
Es long 6095Ym 44715 long
#9
12SPX
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Posted 09 December 2024 - 08:52 AM
Interesting your going long here d but I do think were in a mixed market until we can get a -1% correction here and then maybe a rally into year end. I'm going to keep my overall short at 6103 going but will take a little off with a profit stop of 6099 for now...It's not a healthy market with lower volume and only a few stocks keeping it up albeit call options also through the roof on hopes and dreams except the out of the money options. 10-day's to go and still way too much premium out there....
