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Risk Window for the Week of January the 6th & Johnny Cash


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 05 January 2025 - 07:34 PM

My risk summation system predicts that the day this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Monday January 6th.  It is not entirely clear if the 6th is a new risk window or merely part of a larger window stretching from last Friday the 3rd.  Time, as always, will tell the tale.

 

Last week looks like the Friday the 3rd risk window missed the low by a few hours, but I guess I should wait until Monday the 6th (see wider window possibility above) before I call last week's risk window a dud.

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The answer to the risk window question above may be stirring in the bond market.  Tonight the long bond is banging pretty hard on a very big trap door as can be seen in the two finviz.com plots below.  If the door opens, I suspect the stock market will not be happy.  If the old lows form support, then all is well.  To badly mis-quote Johnny Cash, tomorrow I'll walk the line.

 

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ifHTvwq.png

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 Douglas

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Posted 07 January 2025 - 11:25 AM

OK, the 30 year Bond has broken the support line sharply to the downside (see the finviz.com plot and added trend line below).  Now let's see if the PPT (bonds & stocks division) is still in business, or if they'll stand aside and just let nature take its course, Ha! Ha! just kidding, it's not "if", it's just "when" they'll hit the offer.  In today's stock and bond markets, price discovery is only the discovery that the lower price you were expecting is not available - thank you PPT.

 

pwwRn2D.png

 

Regards,

Douglas