138 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

May not be more than 3% but markets seem ready yo rally.

FUNDSTRAT: FS Insight Snapshot: Are Stocks at a Turning Point?

Does this decline signal a turning point for stocks?

We dont think so, responded Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee. In his view, the tailwinds that helped 2024 gain more than 20% for a second straight year remain in place. In fact, those tailwinds are arguably stronger in 2025 than they were in 2024, he told us.

In the near term, Lee acknowledged that 2024 ended on a whimper, but historical precedent suggests that this lackluster year-end could set up a strong January. The last trading week of 2024 saw four straight daily declines, and when the Fundstrat Data Science team looked at historically similar precedents, they found reason for constructiveness.

Since 1928, there have been 10 previous instances of three or more consecutive daily declines in the final trading week of the year. Stocks were up one month later 80% of the time, with a median gain of 3.6%. Looking further out, stocks were up 12 months later 80% of the time as well, with median gains of 12.4%. That doesnt mean this coming week will necessarily see a bounce, however. Fundstrat Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton observed that while I expect that this consolidation should be complete by mid-January, its hard to claim technically just yet that lows are in place.

To Lee, this means that a continued pullback might be possible, but that would represent a buying opportunity. Buying the dip continues to make sense, in our view, he concluded.

[dTraderB]

Closed 1 es long 6018.25

[dTraderB]

"Pre-Trump trades lift US yields, yuan shaky
....the 30-year Treasury bond yield on Monday hit its highest level in more than two years - breaching last year's peak to reach 4.85%.

The long bond yield is now stalking the 5% level last topped in late 2023 and the 2-to-30-year yield curve gap is at its widest in more than three months.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
Final U.S. December business survey readings from S&P Global, November factory goods orders
Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaks
US Treasury sells 3 and 6-month bills

REUTERS

[dTraderB]

Close 1 nq long 21739.5

Closed 1 es long 6018.25

[dTraderB]

From now to end of day it is VST & ST trading until I get good long or short es, nq, ym entries

Close 1 ym long 43157

Close 1 nq long 21739.5

Closed 1 es long 6018.25

[12SPX]

Slow start to the new year lol!!  Nice moves d, I saw your long going into the weekend so I joined you at 5985 and knew waking up we would be strongly up lol!!  Took my unofficial profits at 6025 for 35 points profit and very tempted to short again here but want to wait for the cash open now see if we pop a little more with over exuberant rally lol!!  Btw calls are priced to the moon now with this move.  Did you know that daily volume options have now overtaken all other options for volume, yup the market  is one big casino now!! 

[12SPX]

Starting my short build at 6035....

[12SPX]

profit stop 6034, sell above...

[12SPX]

Out for 1 point profit and starting my short build at 6040.  Follow it up....

[dTraderB]

Will open new SPY, QQQ, DIA PUT positions ab9ve 6059