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"Global Bond Tantrum"


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 13 January 2025 - 12:15 PM

"Global Bond Tantrum" CNN rating on junk bond demand = "GREED"
 

Just days into 2025, yields on US government debt are surging as the risks to supposedly super-safe assets mount.

The rate on 10-year notes alone has soared more than a percentage point in four months and now is within sight of the 5% barrier last breached briefly in 2023 and otherwise not seen since before the global financial crisis nearly two decades ago. Yields edged higher on Monday as traders’ expectations for Fed easing dwindled further and oil prices rose.

Friday’s blowout employment report provided the latest evidence — while the Federal Reserve is rethinking the timing of further interest-rate cuts

 

https://finance.yaho...-200009547.html

 Chart link @ https://i.postimg.cc/FR1PjTqk/R.jpg

 

NOTE the SPX McClellan sum index was trying to turn up last week but is now accelerating to the downside.

It needs to slow down before it can think about reversing to the upside. YIKES!


Edited by Rogerdodger, 13 January 2025 - 12:28 PM.


#2 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 13 January 2025 - 03:56 PM

I've got the Relative VIX up in Buy territory and I've bog a Secret Hedge Fund Buy.

We might have a corrective rally just ahead.

 

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#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 15 January 2025 - 09:51 AM

U.S. stock indexes are set to open solidly up when the New York day session begins, and boosted by the tamer U.S. inflation data.

In overnight news, the Japanese yen rallied sharply Wednesday on fresh speculation the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting late next week.

The U.K.’s consumer price index came in a bit below market expectations, boosting hopes of a resumption of rate cuts when the Bank of England meets early next month.

Global oil markets will see a smaller surplus this year than previously expected due to stronger demand and new risks to supply

 

Big jumps here today:

TLT Bond ETF up 1.73%

UCO Crude oil  up 1.3%

 

LIVE: Market Launch: https://www.youtube....SuKlpCcoIZZJbxW

 

EDIT: My mistake. that was SpaceX rocket launch 9 hours ago.  purebs.gif


Edited by Rogerdodger, 15 January 2025 - 09:56 AM.


#4 steadyquest

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Posted 18 January 2025 - 10:01 PM

In real terms the market has been collapsing since 2022 - the numerical gains are an inflationary illusion.  If inflation was really tamed the market would be crashing in nominal terms.  The market knows the BLS is FOS and the official numbers are a joke - bonds have good reason to sell off.

https://wolfstreet.c...nth-at-3-1-3-3/

nya-gold.png

 

Oil is dirt cheap in real terms.  Wonder what happens if that situation changes.

crude-gold.png

 

NYA-OIL.png

 

Thought bitcoin was supposed to replace gold as a store of value.  Obviously not yet.



#5 K Wave

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Posted 19 January 2025 - 11:43 AM

Thought bitcoin was supposed to replace gold as a store of value.  Obviously not yet.

 

Uhhh......thus far complete and total destruction.....far faster than Gold against Dollar.......of course that might change at some point

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#6 steadyquest

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Posted 20 January 2025 - 11:45 AM

Even the mighty nas100 has been making lower highs since late '21.

ndx-gold.png

 

ndx-crude.png



#7 steadyquest

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Posted 20 January 2025 - 10:42 PM

tlt-gold.png

 

tlt-crude.png



#8 steadyquest

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Posted 21 January 2025 - 12:07 PM

Looks like a good technical level for long rates to take an extended breather.  If they don't - watch out below.

tlt.png



#9 steadyquest

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Posted 22 January 2025 - 10:06 AM

tnx2.png