5 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system, the days with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are the morning of Monday January 27th which is probably part of a window with last Friday the 24th and a large window stretching from Wednesday January 29 thru the morning of Friday the 31st. A goodly piece of the whole cotton picking week, so not all that helpful timing-wise.

 

Last week the Tuesday risk window, part of a two day window, caught two acceleration legs in the run up.  As always, the jury's still out on the Friday risk window which might have tagged a turn at a top depending on what happens next week.  This window probably stretches into the morning of Monday the 27th as noted above.

 

 

During the week I also posted a response to a post about the US dollar noting a risk window this past Wednesday January 22nd.  As can be seen in the finviz.com plot below, it started off looking like a good low breaking the down trend line and making a higher high, but then rolled over and failed the very next day, a real sign of weakness.  The next couple of dollar risk windows this coming are Monday the 27th and a window stretching from Wednesday January 29th through Thursday the 30th.  

 

 

 

This is not exactly a technical indicator, but I track a portfolio of 53 major US stocks which I assembled about a year ago for investment based on their fundamentals and technicals.  When I put the list together, all 53 were in uptrends.  As of last Friday only 26 were still in an uptrend.  There is some serious rot going on in the gut of this market. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

[Douglas]

EWave-wise, my primary bull count below is still OK projecting higher prices in the coming weeks.  It is possible the box underline 4 is not finished, so another "c" leg down might be coming, but then new highs.

 

 

The bearish alternative below is only hanging on by its fingernails.  If the DJIA exceeds the purple line and makes a new high, this count is toast.  Given the S&P already has made a new high, it's probably only a matter of time before the DJIA does too, but it ain't over until it's over.  

 

 

The only real hopes the bear count has is for more tough love and a bit more than a pause from the FED's Powell at the presser in the middle of next week, or the Federal debt talks breaking down.  The 3 month T-bill and 2 year T-note are only slightly below the Fed Funds rate, so no real pressure to lower the Fed Funds rate from the market, and there's hardly a squawk out of Capitol Hill about the debt limit, so that is not a front page headline news item yet, and the kabuki theater  performances associated with the last several debt limit increases has most folks just ignoring this risk.  As always, time will tell the tale.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

For you cycle junkies out there, since the low in early August, 38 trading days have separated a lot of highs and lows within one trading day as shown below.  The next targets are this coming Tuesday January 28+/-1 TD closely followed by Monday February 3rd+/-1TD.  

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 26 January 2025 - 08:01 AM.

[Douglas]

I noticed this Andrews Pitchfork hit when I was poking around with charts this afternoon.  The green roughly mid-span & low to gap close trend line might be first support below if the selling resumes.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

Despite the failed dollar low that I showed in the top post, I believe longer term the dollar is heading higher due to the ~7 year and 3 1/2 year cycles which bottomed in the last year or so as shown in the plot below.  Cycles can head down (see 2004 to 2011), so I will be watching the last cycle low around 100 on this plot to make sure it holds as this cycle unfolds.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[pdx5]

 

"There is some serious rot going on in the gut of this market. "

 

Overvaluation never reaches escape velocity!

Edited by pdx5, 27 January 2025 - 06:36 PM.