Member
Posted 08 February 2025 - 04:06 PM
According to my risk summation system, the day this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Wednesday February 12th.
Last week the Monday - Tuesday morning risk window tagged the smash low. The Thursday afternoon - Friday morning risk window caught the failed retest of the failed retest turn down, the importance of which we'll see this coming week.
Regards,
Douglas
Member
Posted 09 February 2025 - 12:13 PM
There's a sentiment tug-of-war going on between AAII and TSP where current TSP readings are much more bullish than AAII. In 2020 when this happened (see two vertical blue double-ended arrows), the more bullish TSP proved to be correct. However, at the top in late 2021 (see asterisk) the more bearish AAII was correct. Since the DJIA is looking a bit toppy, I suppose the AAII bearish folks should have the upper hand. The action over the next couple of weeks should clarify who's the winner sentiment-wise.
Regards,
Douglas
Member
Posted 09 February 2025 - 12:34 PM
Member
Posted 09 February 2025 - 05:01 PM
risktaker, that sounds like a consolidation before a move higher. Although such a consolidation would fit well with my primary EWave count which is bullish and expects a march to new highs, this market has lots of concerning divergences such as the CNN market indicator below (from money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed). It appears to me that the broad indexes need a reset sell off before a move higher of any significance. Of course, divergences can always sort themselves out, but the one below looks pretty nasty right now and shows no sign of repairing itself. That said, I do note the positive yellow marked divergence before the last rally.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 09 February 2025 - 05:05 PM.
