13 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

[12SPX]

Doesn't seem to be working lol!!  

[slupert]

Ya might be right Chief. All these people that have taken buyouts will not show up as unemployed until September. The part about contracts being cancelled causing immediate layoffs doesn't sound right to me.The pain will be with the manufacturers themselves not  the employees, they have to keep their workforce employed while in limbo, not knowing if cancellations will be enforeced.Number around 150k tomorrow we rally, things aren't collapsing. Terrible jobs number we might bottom, or very close too it.(JMHO)

[slupert]

Lutnick gave us  a bounce, however it was pure BS with his robot spiel. Apparently he doesnt

' know the definition of the word efficienct The current non college graduate makes what, maybe $20 ann hour, Lunick said they will make $120k a year working on these robots, that will just appear over night, and there will be millions of jobs, as the worls factories move here. Yeah right Howard, we want all the foreign factories to move here so they can move here and practice economies of scale against US companies?? and they'll use our robots to do it??? The guy's a F'n lunatic. lol What Lutnicks speach tells me, is they have no plan on tarriffs, its a big bluff. They will cave, "make concessions" . JMHO

[da_cheif]

hey slupert.....why do u mutter to yourself about all that stuff......pay attention to the market once in awhile    eh

[Douglas]

Don, yep, 19.3% bulls is low but it could take several shots at these low values to put in a meaningful bottom IF the bear is growling and the bull's aim is off the mark.  See the example below from 2022 where it took 5 hits to do in the bear.  Hard to know if this is one and done or if it will take multiple fear rounds to finally kill the furry beast.  As always, time will tell the tale.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[beta]

Those 81% were smart to stay out !   

[da_cheif]

Those 81% were smart to stay out !   

smart to stay out........just like the last 5 times in the past 30 years they were so smart.....not

[da_cheif]

Don, yep, 19.3% bulls is low but it could take several shots at these low values to put in a meaningful bottom IF the bear is growling and the bull's aim is off the mark.  See the example below from 2022 where it took 5 hits to do in the bear.  Hard to know if this is one and done or if it will take multiple fear rounds to finally kill the furry beast.  As always, time will tell the tale.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

so douglas how much of that 15000 pt runnup out of that hole did u catch....did u see it coming???

[Douglas]

Don, you ask an interesting question.  At my advanced age I can't for the life of me remember what I said last week much less way back in 2022, but lucky for me, Mark was smart enough to keep an archive of all the postings.  So I went back and read all my posts from the time the low was forming from about the 19th of September in 2022 until the 17th of October to see what I said.  As the low formed I was incorrectly bearish expecting much lower prices. As I noted above, sentiment was no help at the low since it had repeatedly given false buy signals all the way down. My EWave count was also no help since it was expecting a large "C" wave down to form.  

 

 

From my posts back then I was totally bearish right up until my 22nd October post in which I conceded that the FED was switching on the pump, and I noted a more bullish alternative EWave count which I'm sure was in no small part due to my Chandelier stop being crossed the week just past.  I stubbornly held onto my short term bearish EWave count until November at which point the current alternate big "B" wave count up was born, but the Chandelier stop had crossed over during the week of October 17th forcing me to be long. 

 

 

Currently the sentiment part of my system is screaming buy, and my primary EWave count is bullish expecting a low to form now which could lead to new highs which is consistent with the Chandelier stop above which is still just barely OK even with the selling this week not reflected in the plot above.  That bullish count will fail if the January 10th DJIA low is broken just below 42,000. 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 07 March 2025 - 06:22 AM.