135 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Will start to close remaining hedges as market drops. Extreme bearishness persists & markets should bottom after retesting recent lows. I will add longs below FRIDAY's LOWS.

FUNDSTRAT: "Don't Miss '10 Best Days,'" Says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
Investors certainly had their resolve tested this week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq declining 3.45% and the S&P 500 tumbling 3.1% and posting its worst week of the year to date. While the losses can sting, Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee continues to urge clients to maintain fortitude and to stay on target.

Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton is similarly maintaining a proverbial stiff upper lip. When you strip out the effects of technology, the breadth has actually been quite a lot more positive than we saw back in the middle part of January, he told us at our weekly research huddle. So yes, we have done a little bit of damage in the last few weeks, but the broader trends arguably are still intact. Honestly, were heading into a level where, in my view, were going to find pretty good support and start to turn higher.

Theres no denying that the Trump administrations tariff forays have weighed on the markets mood, sending AAII (American Association Individual Investor) sentiment to levels that Newton described as almost extreme fear levels. To him, this seems like an overreaction. A 5% drawdown is certainly not the end of the world, he suggested, while reminding us that the last two times that AAII sentiment got this bearish were in 2022 after the market fell 25%, and 2009 after a 40% drawdown. Nine times out of 10 when [investors get this fearful], its really getting close to a time you want to buy the market, Newton added.

Lee also sees initial signs of a possible turnaround approaching. The recent stock-market drawdown appears to have triggered a shift in rhetoric from Trump and his team, he observed, citing this as evidence of the Trump put returning. He further noted that this week, the Trump administration made conciliatory statements about tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, which signals some desire to reduce harsh financial market consequences. In Lees view, this weeks weak jobs numbers could not only reinforce the Trump put but also bring the Fed put back into play, potentially limiting the downside risk for stocks.

[dTraderB]

FUNDSTRAT: AAII data (American Association of Individual Investors) continues to show bearish sentiment being quite elevated for the second straight week and the negativity on both AAII, Fear and Greed and other retail polls shows bearish sentiment being the highest since 2022. Of course, this doesn't imply that markets necessarily have to bottom right away, but suspect that this is close. Note, there is no evidence of capitulation meaning abnormal downside volume or high Equity Put/call data, and this is not always necessary before markets turn. Last week showed 57% Bears and 19% bulls, for a net negative spread of around 38% which is extreme. See this chart where the last time markets were at similar levels of fear was following the bear market of 2021-2022.

Will start to close remaining hedges as market drops. Extreme bearishness persists & markets should bottom after retesting recent lows. I will add longs below FRIDAY's LOWS.

FUNDSTRAT: "Don't Miss '10 Best Days,'" Says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
Investors certainly had their resolve tested this week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq declining 3.45% and the S&P 500 tumbling 3.1% and posting its worst week of the year to date. While the losses can sting, Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee continues to urge clients to maintain fortitude and to stay on target.

Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton is similarly maintaining a proverbial stiff upper lip. When you strip out the effects of technology, the breadth has actually been quite a lot more positive than we saw back in the middle part of January, he told us at our weekly research huddle. So yes, we have done a little bit of damage in the last few weeks, but the broader trends arguably are still intact. Honestly, were heading into a level where, in my view, were going to find pretty good support and start to turn higher.

Theres no denying that the Trump administrations tariff forays have weighed on the markets mood, sending AAII (American Association Individual Investor) sentiment to levels that Newton described as almost extreme fear levels. To him, this seems like an overreaction. A 5% drawdown is certainly not the end of the world, he suggested, while reminding us that the last two times that AAII sentiment got this bearish were in 2022 after the market fell 25%, and 2009 after a 40% drawdown. Nine times out of 10 when [investors get this fearful], its really getting close to a time you want to buy the market, Newton added.

Lee also sees initial signs of a possible turnaround approaching. The recent stock-market drawdown appears to have triggered a shift in rhetoric from Trump and his team, he observed, citing this as evidence of the Trump put returning. He further noted that this week, the Trump administration made conciliatory statements about tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, which signals some desire to reduce harsh financial market consequences. In Lees view, this weeks weak jobs numbers could not only reinforce the Trump put but also bring the Fed put back into play, potentially limiting the downside risk for stocks.

[dTraderB]

Lol! DONALD NOT RULING OUT RECESSION!

"U.S. stock futures fell Sunday, as President Donald Trump offered little reassurance after the S&P 500 had its worst week since September.

In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, Trump refused to rule out a recession for the U.S. this year.

I hate to predict things like that, Trump said, when asked if he was expecting a recession. He said the economy is going through a period of transition because what were doing is very big It takes a little time.
...Crypto prices also fell Sunday, after Trumps White House crypto summit on Friday disappointed investors, even after an executive order to create strategic reserves of bitcoin and other digital assets."

Edited by dTraderB, 09 March 2025 - 06:28 PM.

[dTraderB]

Got to add longs at these levels:
ES 5692.5
NQ 19895
YM 42347

[12SPX]

Well this is fun, we were down from the start and remain there even though the market tried to bounce after the open yesterday afternoon.  Good idea d I'm with you there at long at 5693 actually and sold the daily 5690 puts for $30 as I don't mind adding if exercised.  Puts are sooooo pricey now you can even go way out on these daily's and sell great premium.  Markets are now worried about a recession and should be as indicators are slowing.  Tom Lee is never great at calling corrections as he has missed all of them so hard to listen to him talking about a bounce but there should be one soon just because but as I've been saying since November I wouldn't get to comfortable just yet.  Were 2 weeks out from expiration now and so far were repeating the past 1999 record to a tee so this will likely remain a down cycle and then we'll talk about April....

[12SPX]

profit stop 5695....

[12SPX]

Out for a 2 point profit and starting a new long build at 5693 again.  Should wait for 5690 but not sure we'll see it....

[12SPX]

Out for a 2 point profit again, cmon 90

[12SPX]

What the heck I'll take 5691....

[12SPX]

Boom, profit stop 5695....