Starting a new topic for people to chat about as that is my specialty. My main trades are old school that date back to 1983 where the only options expiring were every 3rd Friday. Today we now have daily options, I'm sure its not going to be long we see hourly's lol!!!! As I mentioned at the end of this last February expiration cycle we were matching a record 10 up cycles that hasn't happened since 1999, which made me remark that the current March cycle were in was most likely going to be down. The following cycle in 99 ended being down -5% and so far its looking like I was right as this one is currently off about -10%. What's most important though is that when we look back at the 1999 cycle we also moved down -10% before rallying to end the cycle only down -5%. Could we see a +5% rally by March 21st, there is a huge possibility of it or at the least we move up a bit off the lows. History never repeats but it sure is amazing how this one compares......
Expirations
Started by
12SPX
, Mar 11 2025 09:16 AM
1 reply to this topic
#2
Douglas
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Posted 11 March 2025 - 10:17 AM
12SPX, monthly options expirations shown as green vertical lines below are one of the turns that I keep track of in my risk window summation. Bottoms, tops and acceleration events often occur within a day or so of expirations as can be seen by the purple dots on the plot below. Next expiration on the 21st of March is definitely worth watching.
Regards,
Douglas
