11 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

When I'm not properly medicated I usually have two opinions on the market.
To be bullish on gold, I want to see a break above the declining tops.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$xau,uu[e,a]waclyyay[df][pc8!c34][vc60][i][j32803117,y]&r=4484.png

FWIW, here are some opposite views on gold:
Clif Droke:

The XAU index, on the other hand, has already undergone a lengthy corrective phase in 2004 and after trending below the falling 30/60/90-day moving averages for the past few months has recently broken above all three of them, most recently closing above the 92.00 level. Not only is the XAU above this important moving average triage but the moving averages are in their proper alignment. This strongly suggests a rally for XAU in September. The XAU, meanwhile, has been diverging to the upside relative to the broad market as represented by the S&P 500, another positive technical sign in the short-term. XAU should have a favorable month of September to reward the patience of those who have waited through the grinding market trend of the past 3-4 months.

Robert McHugh:

Like the Dollar, Gold is crawling along its 50 Day moving average, but along its lower boundary line of its long-term trend-channel rather than its top. Since July 2003, about half the time, Gold moved in the same direction as the Dollar. One reason for this may be the influence of foreign investors using non-dollar currencies. If enough demand or selling occurs for Gold in non-dollar currencies, Gold can occasionally move in sync with the dollar. This has occurred fifty percent of the time since 2003. Gold remains inside its long-term rising trend-channel but is flirting with disaster. The MACD looks tired and toppy. The threat of deflation may be the cause. The PPI deflated and so has M-3. Unless the Fed pumps - and it would should equities collapse - Gold may feel pressed.

And to add another opinion, here is Ned W. Schmidt's:

Fundamentals are driving the Gold price, and will drive it higher. Remember that this process is really the U.S. dollar being devalued. For whatever the true reason, our intermediate indicators for Gold, as shown in the last graph, and Silver seem to be moving toward buy signals. Short term measures gave buy signals on both last week. An important time to buy Gold and Silver may be approaching, and hopefully you are ready to do so. When Gold is trading for more than US$1,200, will you be sitting on profits or still reading brokerage reports on technology stocks?

But often my problem is thinking too much.
I'm long on the 8/34 crossover but sure would like to see the declining tops broken. I plan to sell at $1200/oz.

[Rogerdodger]

I wonder if this shows bullish sentiment which would be bearish:
"Gold May Rise for Second Week as Dollar Declines, Survey Says"

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices may rise for a second week on speculation the dollar will decline, making the metal cheaper for buyers holding euros, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Twenty-four of 42 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Sydney to New York on Sept. 9 and Sept. 10 advised buying gold, which rose 0.3 percent last week. Nine recommended selling the metal and nine were neutral.

Gold, sold in dollars, rose last week from a three-week low as the U.S. currency fell against the euro. The drop in the dollar was sparked by comments by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who said parts of the economy are doing ``poorly,'' which eased concerns the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of interest- rate increases.

SOURCE

[SilentOne]

Hi Rogerd,

Things are gearing up for a move no question. Who blinks first. My problem is I can see a large general market decline in the next months, yet the gold sector would have to rise against this tide of selling.



Bollingers tightening and all indicators are on buy except for MACD, need a recross up there. CCI (20) bouncing off the zero line is potential bullish with follow thru. I'd buy a dip to the lower bollinger or just maybe it goes up from here for a rally into Oct. See the link to view all six indicators. I can't get it to show any other way.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui,uu[h,a]daclyiay[db][pc13!c20!c50!c200!d20,2][vc60][ild20!ld60!ll12!la12,26,9!lh14,3!lb14][J10364706,Y]&listNum=1

Ever read Jeff Kern's latest at SKI predictions? Interesting method which I cannot make heads or tails of. But he is dying to find a long term buy signal (triple buy) soon. Wonder if he makes it.

Jeff Kern

One thing that is kinda nice. It is real quiet at the PM bullboards. Comforting in a way.

And where is that seasonal effect? Gold should be screaming upward any day now?? I am long this sector and waiting to add back margin positions.

cheers,

john

[bobalou]

The market/charts, is saying NO rate increase;SO; every thnig is up but $$'s.MY bs

[SilentOne]

Hi B! I stunned! Where is everyone?? We are about to breakout here on the HUI and XAU and we didn't generate a post yesterday. WOW! cheers, john

[ty250]

I wish I was as sure as you,silentone, on the direction of the golds. I am nervously holding a couple of longs butI'm not sure what you see? TY

[Rogerdodger]

Confession: I sold yesterday on the gap up thinking to buy back lower. The "about to breakout" makes me want to sell. The way gold acts, it may gap up tomorrow making it hard to get back in. We will see. I still want to see it break out above the declining tops.

[SilentOne]

Hi TY,

Read up on Jeff Kern if you have a chance. He is about to issue a triple buy signal very soon. This next signal will confirm the gold bull as far as I can tell, and most importantly it will be a long term buy signal. IMO, the PM sector will be the only asset class (next to energy, commodities, and natural resources) that will go up over a sustained period. Stocks, bonds etc. will not. Thus I am trying to position for this next PM bull run with everything available. I have played previous runs more as trades.

Study up on Kern's system, although I admit it is very confusing the way it works.

Jeff Kern

The other interesting view is from astrologers like Mahendra. Ever heard of this guy or follow him? He is very good on forecasting the metals. He believes that a paradigm shift towards gold/silver is upon us. I can see it in my elliott wave takes, that we are just in the early stages of a major gold bull. The prechterites have it very wrong IMO.

But back to some simply TA, this chart is flashing a buy signal. Pure and simple. It was a reliable buy in the past 3 runs.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$HUI:$GOLD,uu[r,a]dhlayyay[d20001001,20041231][pc50!c200!f][vc60][ilb14][J30193256,Y].gif

So maybe we back off for another day or 2, but focus on the buy side if you can.

cheers,

john

[senorBS]

Senor is long and strong and is adding a bit more to his long position on this short term decline. Senor sees a strong move up beginning after this current pullback ends, perhaps a grande move higher. Pure BS. Senor

[ty250]

Thanks for the response. TY Hi TY, Read up on Jeff Kern if you have a chance. He is about to issue a triple buy signal very soon. This next signal will confirm the gold bull as far as I can tell, and most importantly it will be a long term buy signal. IMO, the PM sector will be the only asset class (next to energy, commodities, and natural resources) that will go up over a sustained period. Stocks, bonds etc. will not. Thus I am trying to position for this next PM bull run with everything available. I have played previous runs more as trades. Study up on Kern's system, although I admit it is very confusing the way it works. Jeff Kern The other interesting view is from astrologers like Mahendra. Ever heard of this guy or follow him? He is very good on forecasting the metals. He believes that a paradigm shift towards gold/silver is upon us. I can see it in my elliott wave takes, that we are just in the early stages of a major gold bull. The prechterites have it very wrong IMO. But back to some simply TA, this chart is flashing a buy signal. Pure and simple. It was a reliable buy in the past 3 runs.