3 black crows
#61
Posted 23 January 2005 - 12:42 PM
#62
Posted 23 January 2005 - 01:57 PM
Yes IndexIt's difficult to see how you can have a serious conversation about candlesticks when referring to either the Dow Industrials or the SPX. Both indices open near the prior close due to the way the indices are calculated. Thus on days where a gap may take place (like two days ago), SPX and the Dow will distort the candle because it shows an unchanged opening. Same thing is true on 1/3/2005 where we gapped up, yet the Dow and SPX show an unchanged opening. AGain, distortion in the candle.
Thus when one looks at the history of candles, where recent price action isn't fresh in your memory, you have no idea whether one specific candle is correct or not...because you don't know whether there was a gap or not, which changed the type of candle and the potential pattern.
IndexTrader
they do not show the gaps but the do show tails and up or down closes. The crow pattern is very rare on the chart and has proven itself pretty effective as you can see by the examples, so it appears to be a very serious pattern.
I don't know how you could tell if it's a "serious pattern". For instance, Gann-Trader goes back in history to find examples of this pattern so that he can backtest it. Yet we already know that the indices like Dow and SPX distort candles, so what he is finding in history may or may not be the patterns in question...there's no way to know at this point because we have no clue how the market opened on that particular series of days in question.
You need to use indices that actually trade....for instance the SPY, instead of the SPX. Or maybe the Diamonds instead of the DOW.
I'm not saying that 3 crows doesn't work....I'm saying you can't know that since you're looking at candles that aren't necessarily accurate in the message that they convey.
IndexTrader
#63
Posted 23 January 2005 - 02:10 PM
ITYes IndexIt's difficult to see how you can have a serious conversation about candlesticks when referring to either the Dow Industrials or the SPX. Both indices open near the prior close due to the way the indices are calculated. Thus on days where a gap may take place (like two days ago), SPX and the Dow will distort the candle because it shows an unchanged opening. Same thing is true on 1/3/2005 where we gapped up, yet the Dow and SPX show an unchanged opening. AGain, distortion in the candle.
Thus when one looks at the history of candles, where recent price action isn't fresh in your memory, you have no idea whether one specific candle is correct or not...because you don't know whether there was a gap or not, which changed the type of candle and the potential pattern.
IndexTrader
they do not show the gaps but the do show tails and up or down closes. The crow pattern is very rare on the chart and has proven itself pretty effective as you can see by the examples, so it appears to be a very serious pattern.
I don't know how you could tell if it's a "serious pattern". For instance, Gann-Trader goes back in history to find examples of this pattern so that he can backtest it. Yet we already know that the indices like Dow and SPX distort candles, so what he is finding in history may or may not be the patterns in question...there's no way to know at this point because we have no clue how the market opened on that particular series of days in question.
You need to use indices that actually trade....for instance the SPY, instead of the SPX. Or maybe the Diamonds instead of the DOW.
I'm not saying that 3 crows doesn't work....I'm saying you can't know that since you're looking at candles that aren't necessarily accurate in the message that they convey.
IndexTrader
I am getting your point. Mine is this,
just look at the charts showing the patterns, then look at the results of the patterns, then look for where those patterns have failed. Look at both the dji and spx and go back as far as charts will allow and show me where that pattern has failed? The message of the charts is very clear, if we stay below the 3 candle high=we are at high risk of some more serious selling. Also by looking at those charts=a short term rally is nearly inevitable. That is the message that the charts send. jmho......
#65
Posted 24 January 2005 - 11:53 AM
http://www.litwick.c...ators/1124.html
#66
Posted 24 January 2005 - 04:03 PM
Edited by SemiBizz, 24 January 2005 - 04:04 PM.
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics