The monthly chart on the HUI shows a clear 5 waves up
from 2000 with 3 100% gains and 3 triangle consolidations.
If this is true, wouldn't we expect to have an ABC correction now?
HUI TOP on the Monthly
Started by
Rock
, Apr 12 2005 10:44 AM
11 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 12 April 2005 - 10:44 AM
#2
Posted 12 April 2005 - 12:51 PM
Hi Paul,
The HUI is doing a 4th wave here. Just because it looks to be 5 waves up complete, it doesn't mean the bull run is over. There are many ways to interpret it wave wise. Here is an example, although this is not necessarily the correct count. Bottom line - HUI is in a 4th wave triangle which is very bullish. Look for 5th wave extensions from here.
cheers,
john
The HUI is doing a 4th wave here. Just because it looks to be 5 waves up complete, it doesn't mean the bull run is over. There are many ways to interpret it wave wise. Here is an example, although this is not necessarily the correct count. Bottom line - HUI is in a 4th wave triangle which is very bullish. Look for 5th wave extensions from here.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#3
Posted 12 April 2005 - 02:06 PM
Thanks Silent
Obviously I am not an E-waver, just dabbling.
Could you mention, for we the illiterati how the 2002
rally and pause fails to be a 3rd wave?
NOT quibbling, trying to learn.
IF this HUI triangle follows the shape pattern of the
last consolidation (which is a big if) we would run from here
up to the 03 high @ 250+ around July for a triple
top then fall back to the
uptrending tri line and breakout for good Aug/Sept.
My read of the GOLD pundits is a sense of imminent,
inevitable blast off IF we don't break down here.
This confidence deserves one last beating,
I say late June.
Paul
#4
Posted 12 April 2005 - 04:00 PM
The momentum at the peak of wave 3 is supposedly higher than that at the peak of wave 1. The momentum at the peak of wave 5 is supposedly lower than that at the peak of wave 3.
Catrader --
#5
Posted 12 April 2005 - 04:21 PM
Hi Catrader,
For normal markets where one observes 3rd wave extensions, the MACD applies as you suggest. But where 5th waves extend, the MACD is typically strongest on the extending wave.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#6
Posted 12 April 2005 - 10:44 PM
Here's one from McHugh back in March. Looks like he was calling for an up move near here also. FWIW
"Nature's Failure to Function in a 'Predictable Way'... 500 years ago?"
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#7
Posted 13 April 2005 - 03:19 AM
Hi Roger,
I don't find McHugh a particularly good waver. I think the current leg we are in is the last one for the move down from 248.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#8
Posted 13 April 2005 - 05:00 AM
Hi Silent- I agree with you about McHugh. This is hard stuff. Macd was ready to cross positive on a bunch of names. Do you think this up day will only last a few hours or a day or 2 until we finish to the down side. I really cant take much more of this.
#9
Posted 17 April 2005 - 04:46 PM
Hi Paul,
The possibility of a triangle that I posted earlier this week is out now. The HUI could have made a low in the 170 region to keep it alive, but based on the waves I saw this week, it is very unlikely now. Lower targets have opened up IMO.
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 17 April 2005 - 04:47 PM.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#10
Posted 18 April 2005 - 08:51 AM
Thanks Silent,
I would add the obvious.
The 01 and 02/03 triangles had ugly
10%-15% breakdowns just before launching.
I've been expecting something to get the hard
core bulls to swallow hard. I "feel" a small
consolidation, then turn, is near.
I still remember CDDoug saying
"gold trades perversely" so therefor to trade
it one must be a pervert.