11 replies to this topic

[Rock]

The monthly chart on the HUI shows a clear 5 waves up from 2000 with 3 100% gains and 3 triangle consolidations. If this is true, wouldn't we expect to have an ABC correction now?

[SilentOne]

Hi Paul,

The HUI is doing a 4th wave here. Just because it looks to be 5 waves up complete, it doesn't mean the bull run is over. There are many ways to interpret it wave wise. Here is an example, although this is not necessarily the correct count. Bottom line - HUI is in a 4th wave triangle which is very bullish. Look for 5th wave extensions from here.



cheers,

john

[Rock]

Thanks Silent Obviously I am not an E-waver, just dabbling. Could you mention, for we the illiterati how the 2002 rally and pause fails to be a 3rd wave? NOT quibbling, trying to learn. IF this HUI triangle follows the shape pattern of the last consolidation (which is a big if) we would run from here up to the 03 high @ 250+ around July for a triple top then fall back to the uptrending tri line and breakout for good Aug/Sept. My read of the GOLD pundits is a sense of imminent, inevitable blast off IF we don't break down here. This confidence deserves one last beating, I say late June. Paul

[catrader]

The momentum at the peak of wave 3 is supposedly higher than that at the peak of wave 1. The momentum at the peak of wave 5 is supposedly lower than that at the peak of wave 3. Catrader --

[SilentOne]

Hi Catrader, For normal markets where one observes 3rd wave extensions, the MACD applies as you suggest. But where 5th waves extend, the MACD is typically strongest on the extending wave. cheers, john

[Rogerdodger]

Here's one from McHugh back in March. Looks like he was calling for an up move near here also. FWIW

[SilentOne]

Hi Roger, I don't find McHugh a particularly good waver. I think the current leg we are in is the last one for the move down from 248. cheers, john

[swanstkdh]

Hi Silent- I agree with you about McHugh. This is hard stuff. Macd was ready to cross positive on a bunch of names. Do you think this up day will only last a few hours or a day or 2 until we finish to the down side. I really cant take much more of this.

[SilentOne]

Hi Paul, The possibility of a triangle that I posted earlier this week is out now. The HUI could have made a low in the 170 region to keep it alive, but based on the waves I saw this week, it is very unlikely now. Lower targets have opened up IMO. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 17 April 2005 - 04:47 PM.

[Rock]

Thanks Silent, I would add the obvious. The 01 and 02/03 triangles had ugly 10%-15% breakdowns just before launching. I've been expecting something to get the hard core bulls to swallow hard. I "feel" a small consolidation, then turn, is near. I still remember CDDoug saying "gold trades perversely" so therefor to trade it one must be a pervert.