ut oh....
Started by
tsharp
, Apr 15 2005 05:10 PM
6 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 15 April 2005 - 05:10 PM
welp, the broken record stopped today... it appears to me that i've been mistaken in my view that we could see at least one more new high on this move... i highly doubt that possibility now, though we could see the spx back up towards the 1220s in a wave-e... if it could rise above the wave-c high of ~1218, there would not be any wave truncation (failure) in the last leg up, as it would have exceeded its prior third-wave high (wave-c versus wave-e, respectively).
so far, in this last leg up in the secular bool market that started back in 10/02 (jmho), the dow and spx have pretty much been on the same page, at least within reason... even through the start of this week, the dow and spx were still sitting with the possibility that they would both complete expanding diagonal triangle patterns sometime next week... but the dow just blew itself away this week... UGLY!
anyway, i'll still give the markets the bullish benefit of the doubt for the moment, and the charts below will reflect the more bullish count, but the caveate should be realized, that both the dow and spx may have already finished their respective bool markets, and are now in the first leg down of the next phase of the bear market, which i suggest will continue (once officially begun) until 2007.
that said, i believe that the print highs are prolly already in, and if the spx and dow are still in their respective d-waves, with wave-e still remaining, that they will not print new highs again this year... which if i'm correct in my longer-term fractal count, this also means that the spx 1230s will probably not be seen again until sometime in 2008. in the near-term, i'm looking for a ST reversal next week, with a tweezer bottom on the weekly spx a possibility... twt.
charts below...
--tsharp
first, a filter i developed several years ago for the weekly spx... while it doesn't yet show a sell signal, it does show the continued relative weakness against the prior bullish trend and negative divergence in the current trend:
next, the 21WMAC... which as i've mentioned in times past, in bullish markets, the price level oscillates between the dark blue line and the first line above it... strong bool markets will even see the price level move all the way up to the second line above the blue... but in bear markets, the price level bounces from the blue line to any number of the lower lines below it... we appear to be nearing support now, but do not necessarily need to bounce from that line:
finally, the dow weekly, spx weekly and spx daily charts with updated fractal counts... again this is the more bullish count, giving the benefit of the doubt to the bools, with a three-wave upward move in wave-e still remaining, giving the last leg up a 3-3-3-3-3 fractal structure:
so far, in this last leg up in the secular bool market that started back in 10/02 (jmho), the dow and spx have pretty much been on the same page, at least within reason... even through the start of this week, the dow and spx were still sitting with the possibility that they would both complete expanding diagonal triangle patterns sometime next week... but the dow just blew itself away this week... UGLY!
anyway, i'll still give the markets the bullish benefit of the doubt for the moment, and the charts below will reflect the more bullish count, but the caveate should be realized, that both the dow and spx may have already finished their respective bool markets, and are now in the first leg down of the next phase of the bear market, which i suggest will continue (once officially begun) until 2007.
that said, i believe that the print highs are prolly already in, and if the spx and dow are still in their respective d-waves, with wave-e still remaining, that they will not print new highs again this year... which if i'm correct in my longer-term fractal count, this also means that the spx 1230s will probably not be seen again until sometime in 2008. in the near-term, i'm looking for a ST reversal next week, with a tweezer bottom on the weekly spx a possibility... twt.
charts below...
--tsharp
first, a filter i developed several years ago for the weekly spx... while it doesn't yet show a sell signal, it does show the continued relative weakness against the prior bullish trend and negative divergence in the current trend:
next, the 21WMAC... which as i've mentioned in times past, in bullish markets, the price level oscillates between the dark blue line and the first line above it... strong bool markets will even see the price level move all the way up to the second line above the blue... but in bear markets, the price level bounces from the blue line to any number of the lower lines below it... we appear to be nearing support now, but do not necessarily need to bounce from that line:
finally, the dow weekly, spx weekly and spx daily charts with updated fractal counts... again this is the more bullish count, giving the benefit of the doubt to the bools, with a three-wave upward move in wave-e still remaining, giving the last leg up a 3-3-3-3-3 fractal structure:
#2
Posted 15 April 2005 - 07:55 PM
fwiw, an interesting little factoid for those interested...
i just checked for other days like today, where the spx daily closed below the 20/3% bolly... i could only find five other days, going back seven years...
as follows:
03/11/04.... closed +16 on 03/12/04
04/14/00.... closed +44 on 04/17/00 (much like today, tax day prior to a weekend)
05/25/99.... closed +20 on 05/26/99
08/31/98.... closed +37 on 09/01/99
10/27/97.... closed +45 on 10/28/97
--tsharp
i just checked for other days like today, where the spx daily closed below the 20/3% bolly... i could only find five other days, going back seven years...
as follows:
03/11/04.... closed +16 on 03/12/04
04/14/00.... closed +44 on 04/17/00 (much like today, tax day prior to a weekend)
05/25/99.... closed +20 on 05/26/99
08/31/98.... closed +37 on 09/01/99
10/27/97.... closed +45 on 10/28/97
--tsharp
#3
Posted 15 April 2005 - 08:44 PM
tsharp,
Really enjoy your work and very much appreciate that you post it here. Thanks.
Multi-bolly charts are very helpful. When premiums are attractive, multi-bolly charts help when writing of SPX options, a favorite of mine. Although not the best representation of such charting, here's a reduced weekly on the NAZ that I posted elsewhere using the touching of a candle body to a bolly that is not common:
regards,
jmicou
Really enjoy your work and very much appreciate that you post it here. Thanks.
Multi-bolly charts are very helpful. When premiums are attractive, multi-bolly charts help when writing of SPX options, a favorite of mine. Although not the best representation of such charting, here's a reduced weekly on the NAZ that I posted elsewhere using the touching of a candle body to a bolly that is not common:
regards,
jmicou
Edited by jmicou, 15 April 2005 - 08:47 PM.
#5
Posted 16 April 2005 - 09:24 AM
Tim, thanks for the update.
That's for pointing us to 1150 for the past few weeks.
Seemed so far fetched then.
WOW! what a week.
I doubt you only at my own peril.
RD
"Nature's Failure to Function in a 'Predictable Way'... 500 years ago?"
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#6
Posted 17 April 2005 - 04:22 PM
hi all,
i just wanted to add to this weekend's charts the 130-min EW and forks, with what i think is a reasonable possible price path over the next several weeks... twt.
--tsharp
i just wanted to add to this weekend's charts the 130-min EW and forks, with what i think is a reasonable possible price path over the next several weeks... twt.
--tsharp
#7
Posted 17 April 2005 - 05:01 PM
hi all,
i just wanted to add to this weekend's charts the 130-min EW and forks, with what i think is a reasonable possible price path over the next several weeks... twt.
--tsharp
i apologize for forgetting to adjust the wave count on the last leg down, it should have reflected:
wave-i @ ~1198
wave-ii @ ~1210
wave-iii @ ~1164
wave-iv @ 1192
and wave-v to complete monday or tues...
i've adjusted the labels on the charts for the next time i post them.
sorry again about the confusion... duh.
--tsharp
Edited by tsharp, 17 April 2005 - 05:04 PM.