how do we know we are in abc down here? or, more to the point, this could all be a 5 wave down move of a large A in a corrective dwon move of a higher degree, , targetting MUCH lower.
a nervous 20% long....
Watch closely amigos, it is
Started by
senorBS
, Mar 07 2006 12:03 PM
32 replies to this topic
#32
SilentOne
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 3,452 posts
Member
Posted 08 March 2006 - 06:30 PM
Dougie,
Technically, there is no way to know when this correction will end and where it will end. Ewaves do not suggest a low is at hand yet.
However, I like to deal with probablities on targets. Let's say HUI targets are possibly 280 - 270, 260 - 250, and 250 - 240. I don't see proper divergences to suggest a low near 280, but 270 may provide a ST low and good bounce point. If not then I look to the next target as 260 - 250. A damning piece of evidence are the MACD weekly crosses on the HUI and XAU and now finally gold. This suggests the correction could take hold for a while. However, once we bottom, there will be a very nice long entry for a bounce, but I am unsure just when we will be ready for the next major upleg.
Regarding support resistance levels, HUI 300 was lost so now we have to find the next support level. I don't think it comes in until about HUI 260 which is the breakout level. The XAU tested 124 as a possible support level today, but we are more likely to go down and test the breakout area of 110 - 115 on the XAU.
cheers,
john
Technically, there is no way to know when this correction will end and where it will end. Ewaves do not suggest a low is at hand yet.
However, I like to deal with probablities on targets. Let's say HUI targets are possibly 280 - 270, 260 - 250, and 250 - 240. I don't see proper divergences to suggest a low near 280, but 270 may provide a ST low and good bounce point. If not then I look to the next target as 260 - 250. A damning piece of evidence are the MACD weekly crosses on the HUI and XAU and now finally gold. This suggests the correction could take hold for a while. However, once we bottom, there will be a very nice long entry for a bounce, but I am unsure just when we will be ready for the next major upleg.
Regarding support resistance levels, HUI 300 was lost so now we have to find the next support level. I don't think it comes in until about HUI 260 which is the breakout level. The XAU tested 124 as a possible support level today, but we are more likely to go down and test the breakout area of 110 - 115 on the XAU.
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 08 March 2006 - 06:32 PM.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#33
swanstkdh
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 896 posts
Member
Posted 14 March 2006 - 06:36 AM
Something is breaking out. What is it? Is it some European market. Gold? A company? I am back from the high mountain desert with this sense of a brakout. I just don,t know what it is.
