22 replies to this topic

[beta]

IF last week was a major bottom in PMs, I doubt XAU/HUI will head to new highs without a retest of lows in the next 1-2 weeks. I am watching daily/intraday volume patterns, and there was technical damage done that needs "repair." For example, GG failed a critical swing high test today > 28, which is why I sold. Same with oil/energy group -- the OIH correction from October 05 is very instructive on how major bottoms are formed. Also, consider this: what would be a better shakeout than to shank PMs LOWER than last week's lows? That would clear out the new longs (who undoubtedly have stops on their new purchases), and create absolute panic. I think this s/t action is designed simply to drive pricing on options (puts) lower and get folks loaded up on April calls. Check out the trading volume on GG April 25/27.5 calls today -- "the best game in town" ... LOL

Edited by beta, 15 March 2006 - 08:17 PM.

[swanstkdh]

YOu may be right but I still see positive divergence in hui and xau.

[greenie]

IF last week was a major bottom in PMs, I doubt XAU/HUI will head to new highs without a retest of lows in the next 1-2 weeks.

See, you turned bearish on gold now. And I am bullish. Very much so !!

Few days back, we were on the opposite corners of the room, and we still are. But the room revolved.

Isn't it wonderful ?

[dougie]

greenie: whya re you bullish here?

[greenie]

greenie: whya re you bullish here?

Because of several fundamental reasons, I believe gold is in a secular bull market and dollar in a secular bear market starting '02-'03.

If you accept it, last two months, we had a A-B-C correction, which is the II of a large upwave that started last May. NEM retraced 50% of its gain from May '05. Also, it bounced from the resistance level of early December. On a smaller scale, I see NEM making nice hourly divergence over the last 10 days and is on its way up. This is the 1 of the grand III wave. I expect gold stocks to go up further from here.

On the other hand NEM and stock indices are correlating for a while. So, I expect both of them to go up in tandem, then NEM correcting with what will be wave 2 of grand III wave, and stock indices having sharper downmove that will make their bottom from the Jan correction.

But always remember, the markets have an uncanny knack of fooling me.

[beta]

greenie wrote:

See, you turned bearish on gold now. And I am bullish. Very much so !!

Few days back, we were on the opposite corners of the room, and we still are. But the room revolved.

Isn't it wonderful ?

So, are you telling me that LAST week you were "bearish" (at the lows) and THIS week you are "bullish" (potentially a near-term top) -- ? Me, I prefer to buy bottoms and sell tops myself.

Just teasing you, greenie, but if you want to be taken seriously, have to put your trades ON THE LINE (and not in a rear-view mirror). Good trading to you.



... and BTW, greenie, my post did not say I was "bearish" so please dont mis-quote me.

I said I expect a retest of the recent lows to confirm a major bottom before the next move up to new highs.

That retest could take us back down 5-10% from these levels, and I like to protect my trading profits.

At minimum, GG will close the gap @ 27 from this morning's action.

Still holding last week's buys of TGB and NXG (dumped NTO), and bot April puts as hedges, as posted below.

Edited by beta, 16 March 2006 - 01:01 AM.

[SilentOne]

IF last week was a major bottom in PMs, I doubt XAU/HUI will head to new highs without a retest of lows in the next 1-2 weeks.

I am watching daily/intraday volume patterns, and there was technical damage done that needs "repair."

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but I am getting ready to long for a swing trade that will hopefully test this year's highs. Then we will probe lower again later in the year. As beta mentions above, the technical damage in the last 2 weeks was enough to stop the intermediate trend. The weekly MACD crosses on just about everything (NEM, XAU, HUI, gold etc) tell you that. This will take TIME to repair. The swings will be nice, but I don't see a major breakout for several months yet. Just my humble opinion of course and this remains to be seen.

The goldheart waves show it best IMO.

Goldheart



I am hoping my next long entry will coincide with the MT wave turning back down from oversold levels. We should see a retest of the highs from there. That's the plan so we'll see.

cheers,

john

[senorBS]

In a secular bull market at some point (which could easily be now) that indicator will very likely stay "pegged" at that same level as gold rallies several hundreds of dollars. Just as something like RSI or Investors Intelligenge can stay at very high levels (overbought or overbullish) for months and even a few years in the "meat" of a bull market. So be careful at this stage to assume that gold will correct because the "goldheart thingy" is "supposed to" oscillate back to some likley area. PURE BS Senor

[SilentOne]

senor,

I look at every possible piece of TA available to me when I study this sector. The Goldheart charts give a nice illustration of a good low risk entry point. Last spring/summer was a superb entry as shown in the GEGFI. Now we have to be more careful IMO.

Gann always provides a unique perspective. I have a 113 trading day chart that suggests the next turn is likely late March. I'm watching and hoping it is a low. The second chart shows Gann fan lines. Generally speaking, we have to retake the 1x1 line in order to continue any major bullish run. What is more likely is that we saw an intermediate top and will now probe below the XAU 125 level.



(I can't remeber where I acquired this chart, but I have been tracking it for 2 years now).



cheers,

john

[dougie]

Silent: color me confused : you are now waiting for a new low to get long? or you will go long andthen sell when we approach old highs?

IF last week was a major bottom in PMs, I doubt XAU/HUI will head to new highs without a retest of lows in the next 1-2 weeks.

I am watching daily/intraday volume patterns, and there was technical damage done that needs "repair."

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but I am getting ready to long for a swing trade that will hopefully test this year's highs. Then we will probe lower again later in the year. As beta mentions above, the technical damage in the last 2 weeks was enough to stop the intermediate trend. The weekly MACD crosses on just about everything (NEM, XAU, HUI, gold etc) tell you that. This will take TIME to repair. The swings will be nice, but I don't see a major breakout for several months yet. Just my humble opinion of course and this remains to be seen.

The goldheart waves show it best IMO.

Goldheart



I am hoping my next long entry will coincide with the MT wave turning back down from oversold levels. We should see a retest of the highs from there. That's the plan so we'll see.

cheers,

john