195 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

investors inell US Market Timing Advisors Sentiment 13 September 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview Advisory readings are still positive, but not as good as they hade been. The bulls moved up to 45.8% from 43.2% last week. That is their highest reading since they were at 46.3% mid-May, just as the averages reached their highs. The bears also moved up from a week ago to 35.4%, from 33.7%, as the advisors began to move off of the fence. Those calling for a correction were down sharply to 18.8% from 23.1% a week ago. This equals the low reading of December 23rd 2005. With so few newsletter writers looking for a correction, it would not be surprising to see one. A complete table of recent sentiment reading are featured on the final page. Last week the markets drifted lower as new inflation fears emerged along with signs that the economy is slower more than expected. However, other analysts are clinging to the idea of a ‘soft landing’ with low, controlled inflation. Advisors are starting to commit to one view or the other. We also note that the record of rallies from the lows of mid-term election years to the highs of the following year has been very good, and many advisors recognize that. At the mid-June index lows bulls and bears were even at 35.6%. That high skepticism was very positive and the bears have traded in a 3% range since then. The bulls followed that low with a quick surge above 42% in early July, then a pullback and now a renewal of their optimism. Advisors have a definite bullish bias because correct buy recommendations keep subscribers happy while correct bearish forecasts eventually pushes readers holding cash toward other investment arenas. Historically, bulls are 55%-60% when indexes achieve record highs, and those extreme levels of optimism often prove negative. They reflect fully invested positions. High levels of bearishness are usually positive because they most often occur after a major market decline, and reflect that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines. During the range bound market over the last few years, advisors had maintained a bullish bias, and short term opportunities have been indicated after the spread between the bulls and bears contracted to 15% or lower, and then expanded. The difference between the bulls and bears was 10.4%. Upturns from low levels, as shown on the chart, have proved to be buying opportunities.

[da_cheif]

another post expiration adjustment....on a recent previous post i indicated two focal pts.....one in terms of time.....sept 19......today....and another in terms of price...1256....todays ugliness fits the first point.......as far as 1256....well that one seems far fetched for today at least........1323.59 is 38.2 fib support for the short term.....and just about the days low as i write this......there is a small gap around 1311 which is the 75% retrace off the last swing low.......i suspect 1311 is max risk till proven otherwise.....remaining long the big contract from 1095 and am short the emini from 1330 with a break even stop.....as usual an advance into expiration normally results in a reaction...........wed at 2.15 est may be another one of those key focal pts for price.

[da_cheif]

inestors intel.... US Market Timing Advisors Sentiment 20 September 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview Advisory readings are now showing increased optimism, and less bearishness, as the newsletter editors react to the markets holding their recent gains. However they still have quite a way to go before turning negative. The bulls moved up to 47.3% from 45.8% and 43.2% the previous two weeks. That is their highest reading since the 48.0% and 53.2% shown mid-April, as the bulls peaked prior to the index highs in May. The bears were down to 33.7% from 35.4% a week ago. Their recent high was 37.1% from August 4, just after the July lows. Those calling for a correction were almost unchanged at 18.9% compared to 18.8% last week. These readings are very low for the correction camp. A complete table of recent sentiment reading is featured on the final page. Short-term indicators have resumed the upside momentum shown earlier this month, and still point to higher levels. September and October are usually not very good months for the market, but it could be different this year. However, the year following mid-term elections has a long record for impressive gains. Historically, bulls are 55%-60% when indexes achieve record highs, and those extreme levels of optimism often prove negative. They reflect fully invested positions. High levels of bearishness are usually positive because they most often occur after a major market decline, and reflect that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines. During the range bound market over the last few years, advisors had maintained a bullish bias, and short term opportunities have been indicated after the spread between the bulls and bears contracted to 15% or lower, and then expanded. The difference between the bulls and bears was 13.7%. Upturns from low levels, as shown on the chart, have proved to be buying opportunities.

[da_cheif]

even cnbs cant getit right....the historic alltime theoretical or intraday high was 11908.50...fwiw

[da_cheif]

investors intel for sept 27 US Market Timing Advisors Sentiment 27 September 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview Advisory readings were unchanged from a week ago, with the bulls steady at 47.4%, the bears at 33.7% and those for correction at 18.9%. Some newsletters did change their position but the net results ended the same. The debate between those expecting a soft landing and those forecasting a recession continues. The bulls hold their highest reading since the 48.0% and 53.2% reading shown mid-April, as the sentiment peaked prior to the index highs in May. The bears are down from their recent high at 37.1%, shown August 4, just after the July index lows. Those calling for a correction remain at very low levels, as most advisors have now taken and stance and hold. A complete table of recent sentiment reading is featured on the final page. Short-term indicators have moved back to the recent high levels, as are just below peaks shown early September. While September and October have a historical record of general weakness, events could prove different this year. The �Presidential Cycle� notes the year following mid-term elections has a long record for impressive gains. Historically, bulls are 55%-60% when indexes achieve record highs, and those extreme levels of optimism often prove negative. They reflect fully invested positions. High levels of bearishness are usually positive because they most often occur after a major market decline, and reflect that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines. During the range bound market over the last few years, advisors had maintained a bullish bias, and short term opportunities have been indicated after the spread between the bulls and bears contracted to 15% or lower, and then expanded. The difference between the bulls and bears was also unchanged. 13.7%. This is slowly expanding, and upturns from low levels, as shown on the chart, have proved to be buying opportunities. Sentiment Charts Bullish Themes �In the short term (through the end of 2006), the stock market could display some fireworks on the upside. Investor sentiment is fairly cautious, which provides upside ammunition from a contrarian standpoint. In fact, investors have become more negative as the recently rally has gathered steam, atypical behavior, which truly surprises us. Investors Intelligence differential between Bullish investor sentiment and Bearish investor sentiment has narrowed during the entire 2006 slow trudge upward. In fact, near the end of June, bearish opinion almost surpassed bullish opinion since the bear market bottomed in early 2003. This widespread scepticism in light of higher stock prices in the popular indices provides a healthy short-term climate.� (5-Sep-06) The Primary Trend, 700 North Water St, Milwaukee, WI 53202 �Rising inflation expectations and softening economic growth, in part resulting from $70-$75 per barrel oil and other commodity shortages, were steadily emerging as major threats to the economic cycle�along with a slowing housing market. However the recent decline in energy prices and their resulting impact on consumer confidence and inflation could help improve the economic outlook to some extent. As a result, stocks market indexes tacked on about 3% since our last issue.� (20-Sep-06) BI Research, PO Box 133, Redding, CT 06875 Bearish Themes �Most of the major stock market indexes recorded �key reversal� weeks, with a new weekly high, but a lower weekly close. The key reversal weeks recorded two weeks prior did not stop the near-term advance, but his one may hold more merit. The S&P 500 made a new 5� year intraday high and closed the week lower, which may be a strong bearish portent. Moreover bond yields fell sharply this week, yet the major stock indexes all ended the week lower, hinting that a psychological change may be starting to take shape whereby lower yields are not a �boost� for stock prices, but a harbinger of a slower economic environment. One week hardly makes a trend, but in our opinion, the developing Elliott wave pattern in stocks suggests just such a change is happening.� (22-Sep-06) The Elliot Wave Financial Forecast www.elliottwave.com �As I said in may last email the market looks like it wants to go higher and it has, but without any strong conviction. Up volume has been lacking and it now has reached a major resistance point. There are many people who will be selling to get out �even� and many fund professionals who have money to burn (literally, yours) waiting fro the breakout to new highs. It is my guess that these �experts� will be buying into a faker breakout. We shall see. I prefer cash at this time.� (21-Sep-06) Over My Shoulder www.mutualfundmagic.com Newsletter Extracts Stocks Remain Solid despite Bond Market Jitters Systems & Forecasts | Gerald Appel & Dr. Marvin Appel, Editors | www.systemsandforecasts.com �The modest losses experienced last week were far smaller than the gains of September 25 alone. Breadth indicators remain positive, in confirmation of the price action. The behavior of the stock market is somewhat puzzling in view of recent economic developments. Although it is too early to say for sure that the economy is slowing down, every indicator has been pointing in that direction. GDP growth itself was low in the second quarter of 2006. August inflation was down to 0.2%. Energy prices are at six month lows, confirmed by the prices of energy stocks themselves. The housing market has gone comatose, with sales of new and existing homes down 20% from a year ago, and building permits (a leading indicator in the housing market) off similarly. The bond market has taken notice: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is only 4.56%, fully 69 basis points below where the Federal Reserve has set its short term rate targets. It is unusual to see long term yields (10-year notes) lower than short term yields, and the implications have usually been negative for stocks. High yield bonds are also at risk in this climate even though their trend remains upward. So why, then, do stocks seem indifferent to the gathering economic clouds? Moreover, if the economy really is in danger of slowing down, should investors switch from value to growth stocks? (The latter have done better during economic downturns overall.) One thing that stocks do have going for them is attractive valuations. Even if earnings growth slows (as it probably will in the coming year), compared to prevailing interest rates, current earnings levels are attractive. Nevertheless, the outlook for stocks in the near term remains only neutral. The rally of Sept. 25 revisited but did not surpass the high of $132.48 in SPY reached on Sept. 20. The negative divergence (wherein successive price peaks) have occurred progressively farther below the upper trading band) remains intact. The recommended course of action is to stay with lower volatility areas of the market. SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, and RSP (the equal ­weighted S&P 500 ETF that behaves more like a basket of midcap stocks) are among the most attractive areas.� (25-Sep-06) My View Pearson Investment Letter | Donald J. Pearson, Editor | POB 3939, Apollo Bch, FL 33572 | www.peasoncaptialinc.com �One of the mistakes made by some stock buyers is that they remain as poker players rather than becoming investors. Gambling is one thing and investing is another. You have one group that is called day traders, and they have been sold a bill of goods that some certain system will work for them if they spend all day at the computer buying and selling stocks. They are to play small rises and drops. They may prosper or not, but it is certainly good for the brokers. According to a study performed in 2004, eighty-two percent of day traders lose money. I would think those figures might be on the conservative side inasmuch as I would expect almost all of them to lose. The odds are definitely against them. There are also other methods of gambling in the stock market, but it has been my experience that the long term investor is a winner. As with anything else in this world nothing is perfect, but the long term investor just about has it made.�

[Vector]

why do you think the brokers "give away" those glitzy hyper-trading TA platforms "for free"? I steer clear of those like the plague. Churn baby churn. Get me all emotinal and sell at a loss....every time.

[da_cheif]

Lots of insurance taken out....must be a lotta worry worts out dert.... pc ratios 117 overall 126 oex 200 djia 138 spx 178 indexex 268 indexes on the runoff a huge 98 in the equities 156 spys 162 qqq 302 diamonds russell i shares..635...wow and last but not least.... VIXO......8%......HEE HAW

[da_cheif]

Invesors intell........ US Market Timing Advisors Sentiment 4 October 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview Advisors continue to grow more optimistic, but still at a fairly slow pace. This is in spite of the Dow Jones Industrials flirting with their all-time high, achieved in January 2000. The latest data showed the bulls up to 49.5%, from 47.4% the two previous weeks. The bears moved down to 33.3% from 33.7% the previous two weeks. The bulls are up to their highest reading since April when we counted 53.2%. Historically, bulls are 55%-60% when indexes achieve record highs, and those extreme levels of optimism often prove negative as they reflect fully invested positions leaving little cash for additional purchases. The bears have stubbornly held in a narrow range, within 2% of 35%, for four months. At market tops we typically see them in the low 20%s. Readings continue to be positive, although not as good as they were back in June when the bulls and bears were even at 35.6%. Those calling for a correction were also down to 17.2% from 18.9%. That is the fewest since the end of 2004 reading of 16.5%. This group is short term bearish but view expected pullbacks as longer term buying opportunities. Short-term indicators are generally positive but at, or close to, overbought levels. That allows for a pause in the rally, but the primary trend and medium term indicators are still bullish. The just ended third quarter had the best three-month performance for the past ten years. Investors have been trained to expect October weakness, but that is not always the case. During the range bound market over the last few years, advisors had maintained a bullish bias, and short term opportunities have been indicated after the spread between the bulls and bears contracted to 15% or lower, and then expanded. The current difference between the bulls and bears jumped to 16.2% this week, from 13.7%. It has been expanding since late June but is still way below bearish levels. Upturns from low differences, as shown on the chart, have proved to be buying opportunities. Sentiment Charts Bullish Themes “October. It’s the month investors have learned to fear. Legendary crashes rocked the sock market in October 1929 and 1987. Less well known, however, is the fact that October has often marked significant reversals to the upside after a decline. (Most recent example: 2002.) Thus, October really deserves to be known more as the ‘bear killer’ than the month of crashes. This year, we may be treated to yet another display of October’s bear killing talents. If the month begins with a stumble, welcome it as an invitation to buy. Before Halloween, we’ll be flying again on our way to Dow 16,000.” (October 2006) Richard E. Band’s Profitable Investing 94220 Key West Ave, 4th Fl, Rockville, MD 20850 “A short term correction is overdue, but the intermediate trend remains positive. That comment is unchanged from our last report, only the levels of $SPX and the indicators have changed. $SPX broke out over 1327 this week, moving to 5½ year highs. This is the index that most serious traders follow, so it is somewhat irrelevant if the Dow traders at an all-time high or not. The 1325-1327 level should now provide support for $SPX, with further support at 1290 below there. As long as the $SPX holds above 1327, the bears really have no case.” (28-Sep-06) The Option Strategist, PO Box 1323, Morristown NJ 07962-1323 Bearish Themes “We are now seeing the first pessimism emerging on the energy sector. That comes a little late, because the many of the stocks are down 20-30%. For example, the CEO of Shell Oil said the price of oil was ‘heading significantly lower.’ OPEC representatives are concerned about another oil glut and they cut their 2006 demand forecast to an average of 28.9 million barrels a day. That is down 200,000 barrels a day from last month. They expect 2007 demand to average about 800,000 barrels a day below 2006. That’s quite different from the forecast of a continued consumption increase in 2007 from Washington. Hedge funds are getting worried about their excessive positions in the area. In September, we heard about an $8 billion hedge fund which lost over 60% of its assets in one month. They made a bullish bet on natural gas prices, and lost. Believe me, there is more such news to come from the hedge fund industry.” (25-Sep-06) Bert Dohmen’s Wellington Letter, PO Box 49-2433, Los Angeles, CA 90049 “As always, Wall Street is totally blind to what to a chartist is very visible. The Dow is close to a double top. With few exceptions, a double top is an automatic sell signal. Yet, contrary to this glaring warning, Wall Street is just as certain that the market is headed much higher in the months ahead, If that weren’t so, I would be confused. So back to the charts where there is never confusion.” (21-Sep-06) The Granville Market Letter, PO. Drawer 413006, Kansas City, MO 64141 Newsletter Extracts Market Analysis The Renaissance Report | Richard L. Evans, Editor | 1540 Cambridge Ave, Flossmor, IL 60422 “The stock market, as represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has been generating quite a few "breaking news" headlines with its rise last week. While Wall Street atmosphere in recent months has been quite skittish, and will likely remain very skittish, the action of the Dow at least near term puts Wall Street in a festive mood. The proverbial fly in the ointment is that some important sectors of the market are not doing nearly so well. The NASDAQ 100, which contains the most important NASDAQ issues, shows a very nice rally from the July lows. There is nothing more important than rising technology prices to inject a bullish sentiment into the market. The Dow might be considered the steak; the NASDAQ is the sizzle. The problem with the NASDAQ is that it is not only lagging the rest of the market in recovering from the bear market, the NASDAQ 100 is still below early 2006 highs. Indeed, given the pattern of the NASDAQ 100's November 2005 - ­May 2006 reversal top, the NASDAQ 100 is entering an important level of resistance. If the NASDAQ rallies above the early 2006 highs at this point, it would be extremely bullish. However, the recent rally is more likely to stall. Dow Theorists are looking at the lackluster performance of the Transports. By definition the Transports are in a bear market, although perhaps only the early stages of one. Normally the financial news programs would be bubbling over the fact that lower fuel prices are good for the Transports. The lack of a rally on "good" news is troublesome. The Dow Utilities remain bullish. Wall Street is quick to trumpet any new highs in the Dow Industrials. And, the major trend of the market is bullish. However, there are some glaring non-confirmations.” (3-Oct-06) A Bet Gone Bad Market Insider Bulletin | Tony Jasansky, Editor | POB 541, 135 West Beaver Creek, Richmond Hill, ONT L4B 4R6 Canada “In September 1998 Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) hedge fund lost $4.6 billion. From 1993 until 1998 LTCM was amazingly profitable, generating annual returns in excess of 40%. The core of its success was a sophisticated mathematical trading model created by Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, the 1997 Nobel Prize Winners in Economics, using borrowed money to leverage. At the beginning of 1998 LTCM had equity of $4.72 billion plus borrowed funds of $124.5 billion. Unfortunately, the model did not anticipate the Russian government's default on its bonds. LTCM's failure was large enough to have spooked the Fed into a swift $3.4 billion bailout accompanied by interest rate cuts. Investors in L TCM were more than grateful for the rescue and the stock market responded with a rally that eventually ended in one of the all-time speculative manias in 2000. Fast forward to September 2006 and to the $6 billion plus loss taken by Amaranth hedge fund. What it lacked in sophistication it more than made-up for by taking huge risks to generate $2.7 billion gains in the first eight months of 2006. The market it bet on big time was the natural gas market. Unconfirmed reports suggest that more than 50% of fund assets were invested in spreads between the natural gas futures of two different months in anticipation the spreads would increase with the onset of heating season. Instead, the spreads suddenly narrowed during September ‘06. For example the December '06 vs. November '06 spread went from $2.02 in August 25 ‘06 to $1.25 in September 22 ‘06. Unfortunately for institutions that placed their money with Amaranth the only action or help they got from government agencies was an investigation by the SEC. Thanks to excess global liquidity and smaller assets of Amaranth involved, the financial markets did not need the Fed to come to the rescue. Liquidation of hedges held by Amaranth and other funds only hit an already depressed natural gas market. The record high storage levels, the result of an unusually warm winter during 2005/06 and the moderate summer of 2006 were bad enough for natural gas producer. The last thing they needed was a bunch of gunslingers playing their market.” (October 2006)

[da_cheif]

weird wollie wed coming up next wed.......with the long forecast 1372 initial targer now on the horizon.....a reaction off that area starting thur or friday may find wed oct 11th as a focal pt for watever reaction may occur if any......

[da_cheif]

sentiment remains in great shape........even the insiders are defensive......along with all them commercials.. investors intell US Market Timing Insider Activity 5 October 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Current Insider Activity That latest data shows a further increase in the pace of corporate insiders selling, indicating they are still anxious to sell at least some of their stock as the indexes rally and test their highs. They are apparently not convinced of the durability of the advance, and are not willing to hold on for further gains. Their selling rate is almost double that shown in the summer, when the ratio shifted to neutral status. The latest readings are again bearish and the insiders have resumed their historic trend of increasing selling on even modest advances. The sell/buy ratio is still well below the extreme levels shown earlier this year. The sector analysis in this hotline is still improving, reflecting the delay in reporting and compiling the data, and reporting on a group basis, so the near term outlook remains positive but is also likley to be close to an end.