195 replies to this topic

[gman]

The tues large gap unless it gets filled quickly suggests that an even bigger gap is coming this side of 1372 .....1372 is the intermediate initial fib target Ive been yappin about for months....

Cheif,



I don't have access to futures numbers, so am I correct in assuming that the 1372 in the 78.6 retracement of the ATH to the Oct. 2002 decline? Thanks.



--John

[da_cheif]

its the 75% retrace......first natural target.....then comes 78.6...87.5 and 88.7.......after a reaction off of any of those numbers the alltime hi will provide for another reaction........then up an away....to the upper trendline of the expanding triangle that started in the late 90.s....that trendline is risiing.....now somewhere around 17k in the dow.....expanding triangles are continuation patterns....the larger the triangle the bigger the eventual advance.....we saw the same phenom in the late 80.s and early 90.s....that particular trendline was penetrated in 1994 at around 4k in the dow and resulted in a 3x plus advance in a relatively short period of time....that old formation we saw unfolding from the begining and we bet on it..all expanding triangles have another thing in common.....the shape of the advance that precedes it is the tippoff.......this one will be bigger as the dow divisor is a fraction of what it was 2 decades ago....

[da_cheif]

75 handles off the low and newletter writers still defensive......60% still out of the market..... INVESTORS INTEL US Market Timing Advisors Sentiment 16 August 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview For the second week there was little change in the current sentiment readings, with the bulls up slightly to 40.9%, from the prior 40.2%, while the bears fell to 36.6%, from 37.1%. At the mid-June index lows both groups were even at 35.6%, and the bears have traded in a 3% range since then. The bulls followed that low with a quick surge above 42% in early July, and have drifted lower since then. Advisors have a definite bullish bias because correct buy recommendations keep subscribers happy while correct bearish forecasts eventually pushes readers holding cash toward other investment arenas, such as real estate. Markets weakened over the last seven trading sessions, but indexes avoided declines back down to their recent lows. Short term indictors had some negative shifts, but no broad break downs, and medium term timing tools generally remained bullish. The NYSE has performed better then the NASDAQ for most of 2006, but we are now seeing the possibility of a shift in that action. Traders have been waiting for technology strength to lead the markets out of the summer doldrums. Advisors calling for a correction were up a little to 22.5%, from 22.7% last time. This group is short term bearish, but view pullbacks as buying opportunities, and long term expect the market to go up. A complete table of the Advisory Sentiment appears on the final hotline page. Historically, bulls are 55%-60% when indexes achieve record highs, and those extreme levels of optimism often prove negative. They reflect fully invested positions. High levels of bearishness are usually positive because they most often occur after a major market decline, and reflect that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines. During the range bound market over the last few years, advisors had maintained a bullish bias, and short term opportunities have been indicated after the spread between the bulls and bears contracted to 15% or lower, and then expanded. The difference between the bulls and bears was 4.3%, slightly higher that last week, but still below the “normal” 10% for this area and is a bullish reading. Readings will get even more bullish if we see more bears than bulls.

[da_cheif]

from investors intel US Market Timing Insider Activity 17 August 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Recent Insider Activity We continue to note positive increases in insider buying, although it has still not reached the level of their selling. However, this is a potential major bullish shift in their psychology. Since the early 2000 market top insiders selling has far exceeded their buying. At the start of 2006 that was by a factor of almost six, but the most recent data shows barely twice as many sales as buys. This latest action is a clear sign that insiders don’t expect another large decline, and are finally starting to accumulate their stock in an increasing fashion.

[da_cheif]

WOW EH........AAII .....bulls dropped to 30% down from the prior weeks 36%...............thats an incredible number relative to price and appears to guarantee that 1372 to 1400 is goin to come sooner than most expect.........FAN T A S T I C........

[da_cheif]

from poster sammyO on SI...pretty stuff.....

http://img48.imagesh...038/djiavk8.png

[da_cheif]

WOW.....60% still out of the market ...investors intell.....btw CLX students notice that today the 30 day MA of the CLX is positioned to explode.......what effect that has on the market is allways a spectacle...........a drop to 1287 would be a laffer......after covering half my e mini short from 1307...(still holding long the large contract from 1095) the order remains to cover at 1307 or 1288 watever comes first.....here is this mornings report from investors intel US Market Timing Advisors Sentiment 23 August 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview The current sentiment readings show a tiny decline in the bulls to 40.0%, from the prior 40.9%, and an almost 2% drop in the bears to 34.7%, from 36.6%. Those changes resulted in an increase in the number of advisors calling for a correction to 25.3%, from 22.5% At the mid-June index lows both groups were even at 35.6%, and the bears have traded in a 3% range since then. The bulls followed that low with a quick surge above 42% in early July, and have drifted lower since then. Advisors have a definite bullish bias because correct buy recommendations keep subscribers happy while correct bearish forecasts eventually pushes readers holding cash toward other investment arenas, such as real estate. Advisors calling for a correction are short term bearish, but view pullbacks as buying opportunities, and long term expect the market to go up. A complete table of the Advisory Sentiment appears on the final hotline page. Stocks have surged since the recent lows on Friday, 11-August, and last week included the strongest five day NASDAQ Composite gain in over three years. Averages all rallied with a renewal of their end of July bullish formations, and most index P&F charts have moved through their bearish resistance down trend lines, drawn from the May highs. Breadth indicators also improved quickly, but none have yet achieved overbought status. Historically, bulls are 55%-60% when indexes achieve record highs, and those extreme levels of optimism often prove negative. They reflect fully invested positions. High levels of bearishness are usually positive because they most often occur after a major market decline, and reflect that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines. During the range bound market over the last few years, advisors had maintained a bullish bias, and short term opportunities have been indicated after the spread between the bulls and bears contracted to 15% or lower, and then expanded. The difference between the bulls and bears was 5.3%, again expanding on weekly basis. That is a bullish signal, and the spread is still below the “normal” 10% for this reading.

[da_cheif]

US Market Timing Insider Activity 24 August 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Recent Insider Readings The end of August is traditionally the slowest two weeks of the year for the stock markets, with major decision makers away on holiday. That means light volume and a decline in new data. Insiders continue their recently noted note positive increases in buying, but it still not reached the level of their selling. This is a potential major bullish shift in their psychology. Since the early 2000 market top insiders selling has far exceeded their buying. At the start of 2006 that was by a factor of almost six, but the most recent data shows barely twice as many sales as buys. This latest action is a clear sign that insiders don’t expect another large decline, and are finally starting to accumulate their stock in expectation of a long period of economic expansion. This change is only beginning to be reflected in the comments below, as the data used for the sector and stock comments is delayed in the compellation and processing.

[da_cheif]

BATTERY FIRES AND VLNC The recall of nearly six million Dell (Dell) and Apple (AAPL) laptop batteries brought to light what has long been the tech industry's dirty little secret: The batteries that power our laptops, wireless phones, iPods, and cameras are potential incendiaries. The risk of your laptop bursting into flames is low, and it is much lower for other devices. But it is real, and it's not going away. The lithium-ion batteries that came into widespread use in the late 1990s enabled a revolution in portable electronics by allowing a lot of power to be packed into a very small space. But if you overcharge them, or there is an electrical fault such as a short circuit, the chemicals sealed inside the battery cells can become an explosive fire waiting to ignite. SCIENCE LESSON. You may recall from chemistry class that lithium is a metal that burns spontaneously when exposed to air and explodes in the presence of water. Surprisingly, though, the lithium has little to do with the risks posed by batteries, since lithium is not normally present in its volatile metallic form. The danger is that the chemical reaction that generates electricity frees up oxygen. If the cell overheats, the oxygen combines with organic solvents in a nasty chemical fire that can be contained but not extinguished until the oxygen and fuel are spent. Lithium-ion batteries and their cousins, the lithium polymer batteries used mainly in phones and other handhelds (as well as the new MacBook and MacBook Pro laptops, which are not involved in the recall), rely on protective electronics to prevent chemical mayhem. In a handful of the millions of batteries Sony (SNE) made for Dell (DELL) and Apple, these circuits appear to have failed, leading to fires. Physical damage to the battery can cause the same results. There have been a handful of reports of battery fires in phones and other handhelds, but these are much rarer. Laptops are far more flame-prone because their batteries are much larger and operate in a much hotter environment. Despite the inherent risks, lithium-ion batteries aren't going away anytime soon, because there are no good alternatives. But the dangers are having consequences beyond the financial damage to the companies involved in recalls. One is that we have hit the wall in increasing the efficiency of batteries—at least as measured in watts per kilogram or watts per liter—because without some major chemical breakthrough, higher power densities would cause unacceptable hazards. SIZE MATTERS. Making batteries larger is also not an option. International Air Transport Assn. regulations prohibit batteries containing more than eight grams of lithium aboard passenger aircraft. The largest laptop batteries used today have hit that limit. (A little-known IATA rule also limits passengers to one primary and two spare laptop batteries of any size, but I have never heard of this being enforced.) An Austin company called Valence Technology (VLNC) does make a lithium battery with different chemistry that is safer because its reactions don't produce fire-sustaining oxygen. The downside is that these batteries provide significantly less power for a given size and weight. They are being used as battery backups for cell towers and could well appear in the next generation of hybrid cars, which are currently powered by safe but less efficient nickel-metal hydride batteries. With no breakthroughs in battery technology on the horizon, researchers, led by companies such as Toshiba and Matsush*ta, are pursuing fuel cells as an alternative. Because of the difficulty of transporting and storing hydrogen, the cells would be powered by liquid methanol, not the gas planned for automotive fuel cells. So far, nobody has been able to develop cells that can meet the power requirements of laptops, fit in the space now occupied by a battery, and be cheap enough to be competitive. SAFETY TIPS. Even if such cells existed, we would need a distribution system to make cartridges of the liquid fuel available everywhere. And while the International Civil Aviation Organization has approved their use aboard commercial aircraft, the methanol cartridges might have a tough time passing muster with the Transportation Security Administration, which prohibited flammable liquids on planes even before the recent crackdown on all liquids and gels. So we are stuck with lithium-ion batteries for the foreseeable future, but there are a few things you can do to make them safer. One is to treat the batteries gently and protect them from overheating. Fires are much more likely while the battery is charging, so if you run a laptop on in-seat power on an airplane, do everyone a favor, and remove the battery during the flight. Fires have been rare enough that batteries, other than the defective ones being recalled, do not pose an unreasonable risk. But they are dangerous enough that the industry should step up its efforts to find a safer alternative.

[da_cheif]

The january effect appears to be starting......(small and microcaps rising).....i can see it in 100s of charts....nnvc...mmame....wvwce...vlnc....nnbp....ptsc.....xkem......xdsl.....FL IP......to name a few......huge percentage gains are a product of this effect......spread em out......