24 replies to this topic

[beta]

Thx, John -- agree w/ you about seasonality and need to be cautious. However, I welcome this correction as a buying opp, having come into this week w/ less than half long position. Used today and yesterday to bulk up, and will add early next week. Not all PMs will make new highs on the next run, perhaps, but volume structures indicate that some will, even if they are only nominal new highs. Simply put, I see this volatility as a great opp for traders to buy supports and sell resistance. And given the commodity markets' behavior thus far, not ruling out the possibility that the parabolic run-up phase is still ahead of us ... Have a great weekend all !!

[Caduceus]

I agree that we could still see a parabolic runup. However, I think the odds are we will have a 20-30% correction into the summer. I still feel we are in the early stages of the gold bull market. I am not long any gold stocks right now but I am keeping my position in bullion. [attachment=4448:attachment] This may be the buying oppurtunity of a lifetime if it comes to pass...

[Kimston]

I agree that we could still see a parabolic runup. However, I think the odds are we will have a 20-30% correction into the summer. I still feel we are in the early stages of the gold bull market. I am not long any gold stocks right now but I am keeping my position in bullion.

[attachment=4448:attachment]

This may be the buying oppurtunity of a lifetime if it comes to pass...

Nice chart. I was a mega bull at the November lows (Nov 2000 that is, based on the 8 yr cycle low) when you couldn't find a bull anywhere. In fact, I posted a couple of bullish posts on Traders -Talk way back then (long before there was a Gold Board) and was mocked, as expected I suppose after 21 years of downtrend.

I have managed to sidestep the majority of the two intermediate corrections of the last 5 1/2 years using virtually the same analysis displayed on your chart along with some dynamic timing stuff. Currently I am down to some core holdings (20% position) like BGO purchased as $.22 and GLG purchased as $1.56 (doing some hedging). Will look to reload 100% long positions at previous highs support or t-line as depicted on your chart. However, if it doesn't get there and market screams to new highs on decent volume, I will go long with 50% postition.

Kimston

[SilentOne]

Caduceus and Kimston,

Great chart Caduceus and comments Kimston, welcome to the board. I have not seen either of you post before, but then I have only been posting for about 2 years here. I really like your chart Caduceus.



At some point in this bull market, we are going to break upward from that XAU channel. I don't know when will be the right time, but when it does, it will unleash quite a fury in the gold sector.

Some think the time is now and that a low will be set possibly this week for the miners and we break much higher quickly. However, the miners show no sign of any imminent strength relative to bullion. I think as traders you have to follow price. So yes, a break to new highs would pull you into long positions, but it will be very volatile if it is, in fact, part of a topping process. As an investor, new money deployed here is questionable. Again a breakout to new highs might give the appropriate buy signal. Gold itself may be the better play for now until new highs are established or the miners fail to breakout from the channel (which would be followed by gold confirming a top).

The pullback you show Caduceaus would be very easy for me to buy and I would welcome it. Somehow I think it would be too easy and that is why I can see it not happening. The more likely scenario is a lot of volatility where we have to get long on pullbacks at higher levels. This has been the experience of the last year and it may just continue to surprise.

Nevertheless, I remain cautious here and let price decide the bull's next move. Above all, I would really like to avoid the next big correction in this sector.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 14 May 2006 - 05:48 PM.

[dougie]

Great posts here ! How about this: we head fake higher this week, sucking us all in for the trap door to swing wide into late MAy early June....then we explode higher. should catch the majority of guard

[cgnx]

I know 1 thing. Many a fortune was missed talking like you fellas are talking. Sitting is the hardest investment discipline. We need to sit like theres no tommorow. Just think if you miss this bull. What a shame it would be, no? I'm convinced this gold bull will be awesome.

[beta]

Dougie wrote:

... How about this: we head fake higher this week, sucking us all in for the trap door to swing wide into late MAy early June....then we explode higher. should catch the majority of guard

I think you may be correct.

Reviewing the XAU chart again, it appears we may have started an ABC down type correction last Thurs.

If so, we should dip lower to around 155 on Monday, then reverse back up to 162-163 range, then complete the correction down to 145-150 -- which is also the 50DMA support and a gapfill region. Ideally, if the timing of "C" coincides with Friday's Bradley date, suggests this may be a low formation.

Ill be watching for initial resistance at XAU 162-163. A move back above XAU 165, and another scenario is in play ...

Edited by beta, 15 May 2006 - 12:33 AM.

[dharma]

tomorrow is the 1yr anniversary of the low. to me this is volatility and nothing has changed! dharma

[SilentOne]

Hi dharma,

to me this is volatility and nothing has changed! dharma

I'd say today confirmed the top is in for now. We have a clear sell on the daily from Friday and today was an emphatic confirmation. We probably bounce sometime Tuesday or Wednesday where HUI 330 should hold for a decent trade, and then look for some more down in the weeks to come. This is one of those times when buy & hold does not work on large positions. Trading and risk management are the way to go.

Good luck.

cheers,

john

[ageka]

Hi dharma,

to me this is volatility and nothing has changed! dharma

I'd say today confirmed the top is in for now. We have a clear sell on the daily from Friday and today was an emphatic confirmation. We probably bounce sometime Tuesday or Wednesday where HUI 330 should hold for a decent trade, and then look for some more down in the weeks to come. This is one of those times when buy & hold does not work on large positions. Trading and risk management are the way to go.

Good luck.

cheers,

john

Since this is only a daily cycle high and not a monthly cycle high I am not only holding I am buing into this correction
Buy and Hold will work if the long term means 3 years or longer