28 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

TS,

$675.00 is still the magic number. Came down close and turned around.

A break below $675 breaks the uptrend line from $580. If this last run up from $580 was a 5th of a 5th wave, gold will go down in a heap. I am not betting on the trendline to hold here. I sold at the open what I bought at yesterday's close as it was clear another feeble bounce was coming. I also put in orders to sell down long term positions. I even sold about 1/3 of our gold bullion and silver.

I just don't like what I am seeing to remain bullish. Thus why I am VERY flat today.

Good luck.

cheers,

john

[beta]

I am holding my positions, and added SLW under 8. I have been waiting for the SLW chart to retest that 8.11 swing low since early March, could go as low as 7.60. My near-term upside target is 10.40-11.50. Also swapped some real crapper juniors (ie GSS) for others (TGB, EZM) which are profitable acquisition targets, and I dont mind holding longer. I mainly rely on 15-min volume charts, and based on my readings of volume patterns, am looking for a bounce of 20-25% in most issues from these levels, and back up to XAU 155-160 resistance. Strange as it may seem, I think GG may run back to retest its highs at 40-42. Even IF we are topping here IT, I think we get one more significant bounce ... TGB stopped right above its April 5 gap at 2.38. Might have one more trip down to 2.20's. Looking for this one to swing back to high 3's to complete a H&S top.

Edited by beta, 18 May 2006 - 01:09 PM.

[beta]

AKS (steel) bounced off its 50% fibo (move from late Jan to April peak), also a gapfill, and appears headed back to 14-14.50. Either its in the "B" of an ABC down (to fill the gap at 10.50), or above 15, may be completing an ABC UP to 18. This one has been a harbinger for the metals group, and Ill be watching its unfolding pattern closely. Meanwhile, TIE stopped just above the swing low @ 32.90, would like to get that retest done with.

Edited by beta, 18 May 2006 - 01:31 PM.

[dougie]

where is the 20 day ema at today on GOLD?

[Jnavin]

XAU will fill the last gap today: at 138/140. That should do it.

[beta]

Not stopped out of my positions. $GOLD appears to have completed a mini-ABC down from its 732 peak. I expect a bounce to 690's, then a second leg down to high 5's in coming 1-2 weeks, as part of the larger ABC down. Meanwhile, this could be the bottom in the miners, or just a temporary bounce coming, but I will NOT sell into weakness. Added my final shares of EZM just under 2 bucks.

Edited by beta, 19 May 2006 - 12:02 PM.

[beta]

EZM now up 10% from this morning's buy. Taking profits on 10% of my position. Next upside target 2.55, then 3.10.

Edited by beta, 19 May 2006 - 01:17 PM.

[beta]

Strong finish on the miners, bullish engulfing/hammers/dojis (and amazing comebacks) on alot of juniors today. TGB fell to 2.06 at the lows, and recovered to close near its highs at 2.49 -- that's a 20% swing in one day ! I think today WAS the bottom, at least short-term, i.e., miners were front-running the $gold drop to 650's, and will now bounce strongly as $gold attempts another try at 690-700. Based on today's dramatic turnaround and close, I expect alot of these beaten-down juniors to zoom 20-25% higher on today's key reversal. XAU 152-155 is my next upside target.

Edited by beta, 19 May 2006 - 03:14 PM.

[beta]

... OK, here's a Fearless Forecast: TGB is going to swing back up to 3.80 on this next run. That's 60% higher than today's close, and 90% from today's bottom print. Mark it down. And congrats to everyone (or anyone left) who did not get stopped out of their miners today.

Edited by beta, 19 May 2006 - 03:32 PM.

[dougie]

hope you are right Beta. seeing plenty of posts about golds demise. they could be right of course, but somehow...i dont think so but this move down was IMPULSIVE. anyway it could have been a C of something? cant see it. if not, then we have more work to the downsides