57 replies to this topic

[sagitarius_d]

Well Hawk if one makes 1-10 points a day EVERY day that person is going to take over the world..
I do not think that money can be made EVERY day..I have tried several ideas to bring cash home every day-it simply does not work..You have to be selective in your trades..And as Larry Williams says/i am a big fan of his,although i would not try to have the same performance as his in 1987 :)/ waiting for the right setup is the commodity that most commodity traders do not possess
As for money management- i think there are some books from Ralph Vince.
http://www.amazon.co...9051774-4815300

As for Frankie Joe, according to Larry William's Book "Day Trading Futures Online" he was buying dips and selling/short/ rallies..And yes,the big upmove in 1982-1983 made him desperate because there were no dips for him to cover at and go long..

Someone mentioned a guy named Jim Rogers.The only books i find on amazon from him seem to be telling about his trips,or maybe just the title suggests that,any comments?

I just read "DayTrade Futures Online" from Larry, and there are some interesting things there..And a moneymanagement system which is ..good .

As for the robbins cup,here is the link to the performance of the traders
http://robbinstradin...s/standings.asp

Note that for the stock trading division the winner in 2001 had a gain of just 3 percent for the year ))..

[Gary Smith]

Sagitarius d, thanks for the Robbins link. The real shocker was the 2003 stock division results. You could have thrown darts and made 30% in stocks last year. The average diversified mutual fund did over 30%, small caps returned 45%. Yet, only one trader made over 30% in the Robbins contest.

[*JB*]

I do not think that money can be made EVERY day..I have tried several ideas to bring cash home every day-it simply does not work..You have to be selective in your trades..

I clarified that it takes AVERAGING 1 S&P point a day -- even 1/2 point average is well worth the effort. The idea is when I take a trade is to go for a high probability gain of 1-10 points depending on the set up. The goal is to AVERAGE 1/2 to 1 point a day.

When you have a 7-15 point range in a trading day, these targets are extremely rational. People who have NOT spent many years living with the S&P futures -- tick by tick -- day in and day out -- just don't get what can and cannot be done.

But OH BOY, how so many will sound off nonetheless...even talking about people losing their entire net worth -- a $million -- daytrading individual stocks (the biggest sucker game there ever was) -- changing the subject -- in a thread dominated with posts about futures. Also, I work with NO more than 5% of my net worth in my trading account (right now, it's about 3%, it's been a pretty good year)

I have 3 time periods a day, where if the SET UP is right, I take the trades. IOW, I am EXTREMELY selective. Some days 3 trades are taken, many days none. On average, that works out to about to 1 to 1 1/2 trades on average for each day where I am READY to trade. I have had weeks where I I was ready to trade but only took a total of 2-3 trades and others when it was 1-2 trades almost every day.

It's also noteworthy to point out: because one has not be able to find a way, does not mean someone else can't.

Also, to clarify something Hawk mentioned -- I am talking about the full size contract (I don't trade the e-mini)

[IndexTrader]

When you have a 7-15 point range in a trading day, these targets are extremely rational. People who have NOT spent many years living with the S&P futures -- tick by tick -- day in and day out -- just don't get what can and cannot be done.

**********************************************
It's also noteworthy to point out: because one has not be able to find a way, does not mean someone else can't.

JB:

Well said.

I have found that critics of a technique are simply telling you that THEY can't do it, or don't want to do it. Rarely does it mean it can't be done.

It's interesting to analyze a move in the SP from bottom to top....figuring out the number of days it took to complete, and the maximum number of points from the low to the high of that swing. What you find out is that the average seems to be something like 2-3 points per day.

Yet, if you look at the intraday swings of the SP you will find that most of the time they are at least twice the range, or more. There is definitely enough activity that it's POSSIBLE to average a point or so per day. And because there is no overnight risk, risk threshhold is significantly lowered in that respect.

When I say possible, I don't mean everyone can do it, that everyone has the skills to do. Just that it is possible, and that some are doing it.

Thanks for your comments.

IndexTrader

[IndexTrader]

As for Frankie Joe, according to Larry William's Book "Day Trading Futures Online" he was buying dips and selling/short/ rallies..And yes,the big upmove in 1982-1983 made him desperate because there were no dips for him to cover at and go long..

Someone mentioned a guy named Jim Rogers.The only books i find on amazon from him seem to be telling about his trips,or maybe just the title suggests that,any comments?

Interesting that you put the year at 1982-83. I was an active trader by that time. The start of the bull market caught nearly everyone by surprise. So it's no particular surprise that Frankie Joe may have been short, or may have tried shorting it as it rose. Lots of people did.

I can tell you though that Frankie Joe did not commit suicide in either 1982 or 1983. In fact, he was in the trading contests with great returns in 1984. As a matter of fact, I even start to question this thing about "selling rallies, buying dips". Barron's did an interview with him at one point where he talked about a few trades...sugar being one of them...a classic breakout type of trade.

In fact, at one point I was a member of an exchange, and recall an order that I was told was Frankie Joe's....a 100 lot of the big futures contract. This would have been somewhere in the mid-80's by my recollection.

What year did Williams claim he committed suicide?

Either way, Frankie Joe was generally acknowledged to be an outstanding trader by most on Wall Street. Most traders have had periods where the market was less conducive to their style than others. The point is that he was making a living.

IndexTrader

PS Jim Rogers has no books about investing. He's been interviewed any number of times over the years. So if you want to read about his techniques you'll have to read them there. These days he's on a Fox program on the stock market on Saturdays in my area. Ex-partner of Soros.

[Hawk]

"When you have a 7-15 point range in a trading day, these targets are extremely rational. People who have NOT spent many years living with the S&P futures -- tick by tick -- day in and day out -- just don't get what can and cannot be done." JB= I enjoy your posts, thanks. I have watched every tick on the SnP for many years myself and know exactly what you mean. The same can be said for the commercials. I think it's all about how one interprets the info. They are by far my best indicator. I don't want to trade against them, I want to trade with them at my back. The commercials can't signal when to enter & exit a daytrade, but if you study how they react to price movement over time in any given market, you can really get to know them and what the price will likely do in the future. For example, if you know they just spent the last two weeks buying into rising prices on the SnP, then you know you can BUY intraday dips nearly every day with high odds you will close the trade a winner that day....as opposed to shorting for those profits, which would be difficult to say the least in an environment the commercials suggest for next week. Of course, there are times when commercials are dead wrong. However, this is a game of odds and high percentages, and the commercials are usually right when they are interpreted correctly. Keywords...interpreted correctly. Takes many years of watching them just like it takes many years watching the SnP.

[sagitarius_d]

JB,
We are obviously talking about different things.I talk about 1 point everyday,you talk about average one point a day
I also have found one"time based" setups that have high accuracy the problem is that they are very rare/intraday/-an average of once a month..And yet the profit is about 1-2 points..
As for
"It's also noteworthy to point out: because one has not be able to find a way, does not mean someone else can't." I fully agree with you.But again we are talking about different things.I am talking about 1-10 points a day ,every day, and you are saying AN AVERAGE 1-10 points a day .
And as IndexTrader pointed,i am admitting that i CANNOT MAKE 1-10 POINTS A DAY EVERY DAY!But if you guys claim this,you should be multi-millionaires,and maybe could show real statements?

And i say the movement from 1982-1983 because in 1982 the markets hit a bottom and the upmove continued until 1983,in 1984 the markets were generally flat..

As for the setup i mentioned above- it is so rare,that even if it was 100 % right/whic it is not/ one could lose money on emotional trades if the trader is not disciplined.

As for Frankie Joe, i hope we talk about the same person.Larry Williams says that Frankie Comitted suicide in 1983..He was a trader from 1960-1983..And before that he was into sports..Baseball or something like that..
http://www.amazon.co...2...rankie joe"

As for the watching of intraday prices- watching is one thing but making a profitable trade every day is quite another..

Have a Good Evening!

[*JB*]

But again we are talking about different things.I am talking about 1-10 points a day ,every day, and you are saying AN AVERAGE 1-10 points a day .
And as IndexTrader pointed,i am admitting that i CANNOT MAKE 1-10 POINTS A DAY EVERY DAY!But if you guys claim this,you should be multi-millionaires,and maybe could show real statements?

Just to keep this clear -- what I said was --

QUOTE:
The idea is when I take a trade is to go for a high probability gain of 1-10 points depending on the set up. The goal is to AVERAGE 1/2 to 1 point a day. NOT an average of 1-10 points a day.

IOW -- when a trade is taken, the target for THE TRADE can be as little as 1 point and as much as 10 depending on the set up...That TARGET is mostly based on a running "average daily range".

The over all goal is to average 1/2 to 1 point a day -- net.

That's 125-250 S&P points a year...something Mark's published (trade by trade) track record for his S&P system far exceeds...at least the last time I saw it.

I don't think Hawk was claiming he was making 1-10 points everyday.

I know I wasn't -- especially since I clearly said there are many days no set up presents itself. In short, this misunderstanding took on a life of it's own -- but -- since I used the figure of 1-10 points, I took the disagreement to be aimed at what I said and the wrong assumptions I saw attached to those figures.

[sagitarius_d]

Ok,ok.. So you found setups like the one i found-they are rare and you are selective,and make 1-10 points but not every day,only on days where the setup's entry is executed,right?

[*JB*]

When you have a 7-15 point range in a trading day, these targets are extremely rational.  People who have NOT spent many years living with the S&P futures -- tick by tick -- day in and day out -- just don't get what can and cannot be done.

**********************************************
It's also noteworthy to point out: because one has not be able to find a way, does not mean someone else can't.

JB:

Well said.

I have found that critics of a technique are simply telling you that THEY can't do it, or don't want to do it. Rarely does it mean it can't be done.

It's interesting to analyze a move in the SP from bottom to top....figuring out the number of days it took to complete, and the maximum number of points from the low to the high of that swing. What you find out is that the average seems to be something like 2-3 points per day.

Yet, if you look at the intraday swings of the SP you will find that most of the time they are at least twice the range, or more. There is definitely enough activity that it's POSSIBLE to average a point or so per day. And because there is no overnight risk, risk threshhold is significantly lowered in that respect.

When I say possible, I don't mean everyone can do it, that everyone has the skills to do. Just that it is possible, and that some are doing it.

Thanks for your comments.

IndexTrader

Index --
Well said right back to you!!

The last 12 months has seen produced a shrinking intraday range, during the last part of 1999 and through most of 2000, the range ran much higher -- 20-25 point days we not unusual at all -- often with a net for the day of near zero.

When I started looking at the daily range many years ago, I found that INTRADAY, the sum of the daily ranges for the previous year FAR exceeded the whole value of the index 3-4 times a year (or far more). In other words -- if the S&P was at 500 (way back), the sum of the daily ranges over the previous year was 1500 points PLUS.

I then started the process of looking how to trade the S&P with the question: "where are the BIGGEST point movements" available to trade -- intraday
OR
postion trading?

Also "where was the biggest risk: being in the market 5 to 30 minutes at a time...shuting down and out of the market at the end every day...
OR
...holding a position 24 hours a day when I can only control the trade for 6 3/4 hours of that 24 hours.

I think you know my answers.

Best --
JB