20 replies to this topic

[HiFiGuy]

Let's see how this plays out. 115 should be support, but time symmetry would indicate we won't bounce long.
Note that if C=1.618 x A, target is 80.

Comments welcome.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XAU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p39915095885&a=57905006&r=300.png

Edited by HiFiGuy, 03 October 2006 - 08:47 PM.

[Caduceus]

Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing it. I am also thinking that we will visit the 100-110 area before we see a solid bottom. I would be suprised to see it as low as 80 but anything is possible. Here is a chart I follow. We are nearing the "buy zone". I think this next IT low will be a great oppurtunity to add long-term positions. [attachment=4800:attachment] Good Trading,

[SilentOne]

HiFiGuy,

Note that if C=1.618 x A, target is 80.

C waves or third waves come in 5 waves as clear impulses. That is what we are doing right now. We have to be in a 5th wave, which is extending (your c of C as shown). That is how I count with classic EW, but then if you look at Neely, it is a completely different methodology. We can still hit your target area with such a count. Note however, extended 5th wave declines retrace quite quickly. Think in terms of a rubber band. It is being stretched to its limits and we will get there in a matter of days.

cheers,

john

[dougie]

I dont se how you can make this count as 5 down for a C....
looks like we are in a 3 down of C here....

HiFiGuy,

Note that if C=1.618 x A, target is 80.

C waves or third waves come in 5 waves as clear impulses. That is what we are doing right now. We have to be in a 5th wave, which is extending (your c of C as shown). That is how I count with classic EW, but then if you look at Neely, it is a completely different methodology. We can still hit your target area with such a count. Note however, extended 5th wave declines retrace quite quickly. Think in terms of a rubber band. It is being stretched to its limits and we will get there in a matter of days.

cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

dougie,

At this point I will not hang my hat on EW. This is what I had a few days ago.



We are almost done here.

I bought NEM Jan 45 calls at $1.60.

Will accumulate more here and tomorrow.

cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

Based on intraday counts, I wouls say we just entered a 5th of a 5th, or we are in a 4th wave now from 275 and we have one more decline (final 5th wave) push down here. I know it looks like a death spiral, but that is how they always look near the end. Meanwhile gold is quickly getting to the next target zone of $550. cheers, john

[dougie]

but your stated targets above are 250/260 a long ways below

[SilentOne]

dougie,

but your stated targets above are 250/260 a long ways below

The 5th of a 5th will extend as well. I've done this before. Check my post on May 9th 2004, the day before the May 10th bottom. Same deal.

cheers,

john

[HiFiGuy]

Thanks for both of your comments. Correct me if i'm wrong, but if the 5th/5th extends, and we're in w3 of C, i think we go even lower than 104. w3 cannot be the shortest wave of an impulse. if w5 extends, then w3 must be at least as long as w1, which was a 32 pt decline. w4 may retrace a significant % of w3 (50-62% typically, but not to exceed xau= 121), but then w5 would hit catching early bulls off guard.... note also that there's a big h&s target in play which also projects to the 80 range.. be careful here with picking a bottom. i realize there's no crystal ball, but this is a FF forecast. money management rules. thanks again for your input.

Edited by HiFiGuy, 04 October 2006 - 12:53 PM.

[SilentOne]

HiFiGuy

Correct me if i'm wrong, but if the 5th/5th extends, and we're in w3 of C, i think we go even lower than 104.

I think we have one more push down as we should be in wave 4 of 5 of wave C. So a 5th of a 5th to go here to finish. The 250 - 260 target is still good IMO.

If you look at this count. The decline from HUI 308 is the 5th wave of C.



cheers,

john