11 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

Here is a cute megaphone that is about to crater.

This index has been the leader since the summer lows, now leading in the opposite direction.

Soon we will see what happens when the leadership is death.

[U.F.O.]

What's the timeframe on this chart? 5min, 10min, 30min, 60min, etc.? Thx. U.F.O.

[A-ha]

10 day , 15 min ticks

[U.F.O.]

So we're supposed to take a 15 min. chart that's misconceived and consider that a "death crater" is on the plate? Hot-to-mighty....scares me. #1, you blew the chart on the supposed megaphone. What happened to the plot point from 2/1? You cant't just ignore the 1st pullback off a ST rally? #2, even if a VST megaphone was in the offing (which it isn't) it has no IT bearing on the direction of the market. #3, the correct chart pattern off a rally high (which hit on 2/6) is a rising wedge.....which, in a bull market, is a VERY bullish chart pattern. (1 chart)

U.F.O.

[BigBadBear]

Megaphones are a very reliable pattern. I always base my trades on them 100%

[A-ha]

Every divergence or technical event has reflections in small time frames.

If you could have pulled a one month chart of OEX and compare it with the other indices, you would have seen the fact that OEX has been underperforming all of them except NDX which will lead us on the downside when things turn. So there you have your IT time frame divergence.

Then you could ask why I preferred to show this recent formation instead of that ? Because this board has no interest in other time frames. People here mostly daytrade.

[arbman]

The ECB is right about to announce their interest rates decision, the bulls might say it is priced in at this point. But, the long term bonds have a good momentum to the upside and the USD is at the edge of the cliff again, if it gets shot down twice right here by the strength of the Euro and the decline in the long term yields, I doubt that another inflationary blow off is in the cards like the last spring's or fall's since the liquidity is drying at the moment and the credit growth was slower during the rally in fall. Hence its compounding effect should be also muted and the Fed can not do much about it...

The Fed has not made any permanent repo since 12/20, there are only $19.75B in temp repos and $12.75B is expiring tomorrow, the Treasury auctions are back to the short term and relatively low levels. These are trying to support the USD and so far they didn't... (what I am trying to say clearly is there is not enough liquidity being created to support the stocks, yet the current situation is still unable to support much the USD compared to the other currencies, so the liquidity will continue to dry)

The net call options in the open interest did not grow since it had the 30% haircut after the January expirations despite the claims of the bulls that the market is about to go up explosively. I wonder where the institutional interest is. There are very unfavorable positions being opened in the index options. The liquidity is drying folks, I remain bearish, for the IT, but hedged, and still expect a top before March...

- kisa


Ref. ECB homepage, I think the decision will come out at 8:30am EST.

Edited by kisacik, 08 February 2007 - 04:46 AM.

[arbman]

BTW, if the USD holds and initiates a strong reversal for the short term at least, I will probably change my mind to more bullish upside into March because it will give much more room to the gov't to work with the currency. So far it hasn't been able to convincingly take the 200 dma, but the standard deviations in many time frames are fairly squeezed. I believe even if the USD declines from here, it will not last very long since the credit growth rate declines, however where it bottoms might still cause problems for the IT due to the delayed rates and credit related outlook...

Edited by kisacik, 08 February 2007 - 04:58 AM.

[A-ha]

I thought they already announced, I just checked they haven't yet.... I think they will not change the rates

Edited by xD&Cox, 08 February 2007 - 05:05 AM.

[arbman]

I am going to point out the famous securities lending chart from the FRBNY;

Either the institutional and/or the retail investors are looking to buy and the market makers are not going against them at the moment to support the prices, usually a decline that initiates with this setup can get legs...

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 08 February 2007 - 05:22 AM.