8 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

Below is a one month daily comparison chart indicating how OEX underperformed the other indices except NDX for the last month. Like I said in my previous post, OEX lost its leadership.





Below is 5 year weekly chart, clearly showing that the main reason OEX has been lagging the other major indices is the fact that it is up against the long term channel top line pressuring the index for almost 2 months now ! This chart shows the next possible target on the downside is 648.





And below is a one month daily chart. Note that daily closes within the megaphone has the clues about the direction of the breakout.





Below is 10 day 30 minute intraday chart showing the megaphone or expanding triangle formation in detail.





and of course smart money has already been positioned for it (this chart is from yesterday which is not much changed)

Edited by xD&Cox, 08 February 2007 - 04:58 AM.

[Jnavin]

Broadening Top formation = megaphone.

[arbman]

OEX implied volatility declined today despite the lower close, I would give the benefit of the doubt for a little bit more upside. I guess SPX can also achieve a bit higher like airedale says, but I am not frothing here... btw, RUT is still carrying the late bull flag, I think it will mark the top, unless it did

[cafeflorida]

On Thursday, January 25, OEX reached
699.99 intraday, 0.14 points shy of the
0.618 Fib retracement from the 2002 lows.

Peter Eliades reminds us of that in his
Feb. 2nd newsletter.

The Fib 0.618 retracement would be
OEX 670.13, says Peter E.

[A-ha]

On Thursday, January 25, OEX reached
699.99 intraday

You mean 669.99

[cafeflorida]

yep. 669.99

[pisces]

Below is a one month daily comparison chart indicating how OEX underperformed the other indices except NDX for the last month. Like I said in my previous post, OEX lost its leadership.





Below is 5 year weekly chart, clearly showing that the main reason OEX has been lagging the other major indices is the fact that it is up against the long term channel top line pressuring the index for almost 2 months now ! This chart shows the next possible target on the downside is 648.





And below is a one month daily chart. Note that daily closes within the megaphone has the clues about the direction of the breakout.





Below is 10 day 30 minute intraday chart showing the megaphone or expanding triangle formation in detail.





and of course smart money has already been positioned for it (this chart is from yesterday which is not much changed)

THANKS, EXELLENT CHART WORK and CONCLUSIOS as always



after 2 to 3 days of sideways to down,I can see a final upmove especially in the S+P to meet air88,s target.Then down till the end of march,then a rally and down to the 4,5 yr low later in spring or early summer,then a hell of a rally into the fall or yearend....A TRADERS PARADISE. W HAT MORE CAN WE ASK FOR

Good trading to all.

Pisces.....

[eminimee]

XD..I agree and have gone on about OEX before and that's why I'm short oex with puts as apposed to spx this time around. You and I differ on the longer term at this point however unless 615 is taken out south and especially 604

This thing is on the brink of death...just waiting for someone to pull the plug. Really need a close now below 660 though to confirm...otherwise the last leg of a 5 could still be out there especially if mid band holds.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p00983982321&a=87693315&r=9091.png

[A-ha]

XD..I agree and have gone on about OEX before and that's why I'm short oex with puts as apposed to spx this time around. You and I differ on the longer term at this point however unless 615 is taken out south and especially 604

This thing is on the brink of death...just waiting for someone to pull the plug. Really need a close now below 660 though to confirm...otherwise the last leg of a 5 could still be out there especially if mid band holds.

Maybe I should grab a few contracts for myself too.
OEX options are one of those with very low premium, I am sure those puts could double / triple once they pull the plug.