10-day OEX
#1
Posted 08 February 2007 - 03:57 PM
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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#2
Posted 08 February 2007 - 04:05 PM
#3
Posted 08 February 2007 - 04:21 PM
#4
Posted 08 February 2007 - 04:31 PM
#5
Posted 08 February 2007 - 04:37 PM
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter
#6
Posted 08 February 2007 - 05:01 PM
#7
Posted 08 February 2007 - 05:05 PM
Readings above 1.75 have been rare since 1990, and yesterday's 1.92 reading was the highest since Y2K.
Other readings of 1.75 or higher in the last 17 years and their approximate outcomes:
April/May 1999 - Top, 14 day - 40 point OEX decline, and then rally.
Y2K - Top, 60 day - 70 point OEX decline, and then rally.
September 2000 - Top, 30 day - 75 point OEX decline, and then rally.
January 9, 2002 - Top, 30 day - 41 point OEX decline, and then rally.
August 2006 - Top, 3 day - 11 point OEX decline, and then rally.
It's important to note that except for the recent 2006 readings, the NYSE advance/decline line was either declining or in the process of bottoming which is not the case at the current time.
Other than that, as Gary has already pointed out, this was one of the premiere sentiment indicators back in the 1980's with readings above 1.00 giving highly reliable turning points within a couple of days. I do believe it was Steve Todd who originally championed this indicator in his work so it might be interesting to get his take on it.
Fib
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“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
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#8
Posted 08 February 2007 - 05:17 PM
Edited by fib_1618, 08 February 2007 - 05:18 PM.
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions
#9
Posted 08 February 2007 - 05:27 PM
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions
#10
Posted 08 February 2007 - 05:29 PM
Edited by kisacik, 08 February 2007 - 05:38 PM.