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[OEXCHAOS]

I wrote this in the ISA Navigator on Tuesday after Hulbert's article came out on Market Watch.



Mark Hulbert reports that his HSNSI (Hulbert Stock NEwsletter Sentiment Index) fell by more than 17 percentage points, from 70.8% at its peak in November, to 53.1% now. Mr. Hulbert thinks that this is good news for Bulls, and it could well be. That said, it could also be bad news. As we've said before, sentiment is not linear nor simplistic; huge bullishness doesn't beget huge declines in most cases, for example, even though Bullish excesses are often markers for tops. After getting significantly Bulled up, Hulbert's newsletter writers have pulled in their horns significantly. He takes that as a hopeful sign for stocks, and it may be. On the flip side, I have often observed that stocks will often fall AFTER such shifts from excessive Bullishness. It's certainly not a lock, but it is a heads up. The market may be in more danger than it was in November.

For now, we view this as neutral, but also a heads up.



I figured this was worth repeating. I've noted something similar happening in II and some other sentiment measures. This doesn't mean that I'm calling for the end of the Bull market as yet. I'm not. In fact, this current weakness may not last long at all. Of course, the weekly MACD turned back down and that's not so good...



Mark

[Frac_Man]

One more run into March will mark the high for 2007


Hank

I wrote this in the ISA Navigator on Tuesday after Hulbert's article came out on Market Watch.



Mark Hulbert reports that his HSNSI (Hulbert Stock NEwsletter Sentiment Index) fell by more than 17 percentage points, from 70.8% at its peak in November, to 53.1% now. Mr. Hulbert thinks that this is good news for Bulls, and it could well be. That said, it could also be bad news. As we've said before, sentiment is not linear nor simplistic; huge bullishness doesn't beget huge declines in most cases, for example, even though Bullish excesses are often markers for tops. After getting significantly Bulled up, Hulbert's newsletter writers have pulled in their horns significantly. He takes that as a hopeful sign for stocks, and it may be. On the flip side, I have often observed that stocks will often fall AFTER such shifts from excessive Bullishness. It's certainly not a lock, but it is a heads up. The market may be in more danger than it was in November.

For now, we view this as neutral, but also a heads up.



I figured this was worth repeating. I've noted something similar happening in II and some other sentiment measures. This doesn't mean that I'm calling for the end of the Bull market as yet. I'm not. In fact, this current weakness may not last long at all. Of course, the weekly MACD turned back down and that's not so good...



Mark