5 replies to this topic

[.Blizzard]

[color=#FF0000]

The Economic Confidence Model in 2.15-year intervals

1998.55... 07/20/98

2000.7.... 09/13/00

2002.85... 11/08/02

2005.... 01/02/05

2007.15... 02/27/07

http://www.contrahou...n_armstron.html

Edited by .Blizzard, 27 February 2007 - 03:23 AM.

[.Blizzard]

[bobalou]

your dog has funney ears

[.Blizzard]

Durable-goods orders weak across the board Core capital-equipment orders post biggest drop since January 2004 PrintE-mailDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Greg Robb, MarketWatch Last Update: 8:40 AM ET Feb 27, 2007 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- New orders for U.S.-made durable goods plunged 7.8% in January as nearly every category of manufactured goods declined, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The drop was the largest since October and exceeded the 5.5% drop expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar. Orders in December rose a revised 2.8%, down from 2.9% previously reported. Analysts expected the headline number would be knocked down in January because Boeing Co. (BA : Boeing Co. BA88.93, -1.35, -1.5%) had a large drop in orders compared with December. Aircraft orders are very volatile. Transportation orders fell 18% in January after rising 3.1% in December. Aircraft orders fell 60.3% in January. Read full report. But the weakness in January's durable-goods orders extended well beyond the aircraft sector. Orders excluding transportation fell 3.1% in January. This is the third drop in the past four months. Orders for core capital equipment, the kind of goods producers invest in to build their productive capacity, fell 6.0% in January, the biggest drop since January 2004. Shipments of core-capital goods fell 2.7%. Economists said orders were being constrained by an inventory adjustment now underway. The weakness will not be a surprise for Federal Reserve officials. Fed chief Ben Bernanke told Congress two weeks ago that industrial production would be restrained in the early part of the year because of the inventory correction. Read Bernanke testimony. The Fed has forecast moderate growth for 2007 and gradually declining inflation. Fed watchers see the Fed holding interest rates steady for the short-term. Some see the central bank on hold for all of 2007. Defense capital goods rose 10.7% in January. Shipments of durable goods rose 0.2% in January after rising 0.5% in the previous month. Excluding transportation orders, shipments rose 0.9% after a 0.4% fall in December. Unfilled orders rose 0.1% after rising 2.2% in December. Inventories rose 0.3% after rising 0.7% in the previous month. Looking at individual sectors, orders for machinery fell 9.3% in January. Shipments of machinery fell 6%. Orders for computers and electronics other than semiconductors fell 7.8%. Shipments of computers rose 10.8%. Orders for primary metals fell 1.5% in January. Shipments of primary metals fell 0.7%.

[stocks]

[color=#FF0000]

The Economic Confidence Model in 2.15-year intervals

1998.55... 07/20/98

2000.7.... 09/13/00

2002.85... 11/08/02

2005.... 01/02/05

2007.15... 02/27/07

http://www.contrahou...n_armstron.html

May have called the Shanghai top, & not the US top.

[Dex]

Thanks for posting - I found it interesting.