3 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

I had to make note of this "uh-oh" I wrote about this morning in the ISA Navigator...

"Rydex non-Dynamic Bull funds had $8MM of (net) outflows on a "crash" day which is far lower than we'd expect and there was actually some purchases of the OTC Bull fund. The non-Dynamic Bear funds saw little action with just $5MM of (net) inflows. It doesn't look like there's much Bearishness at all among the least sophisticated traders. In fact, the Naz traders are buying the dip. The Dynamic funds surprisingly saw Bull fund (net) buys of $107MM and saw significant Bear fund liquidations of $21MM. Looks like there's dip buying and Bearish profit taking across the board. This is NOT Bullish folks. It's likely to be punished. The RSO showed a modest $50MM Bearish asset shift on a huge down day. Note that this is not net of NAV changes. Accounting for the huge value shifts, we actually saw ample BULLISH asset shifts on a huge down day. This is a Sell and it's supported by the dip-buying by the least sophisticated traders. A bounce is to be expected, but it probably won't hold."

[jawndissedi]

Fits with this morning's horrible looking, bound-to-fail rally attempt. What the bulls needed here was an early (scary) retest of yesterday's lows.

[fib_1618]

"Rydex non-Dynamic Bull funds had $8MM of (net) outflows on a "crash" day which is far lower than we'd expect and there was actually some purchases of the OTC Bull fund. The non-Dynamic Bear funds saw little action with just $5MM of (net) inflows. It doesn't look like there's much Bearishness at all among the least sophisticated traders. In fact, the Naz traders are buying the dip. The Dynamic funds surprisingly saw Bull fund (net) buys of $107MM and saw significant Bear fund liquidations of $21MM. Looks like there's dip buying and Bearish profit taking across the board. This is NOT Bullish folks. It's likely to be punished. The RSO showed a modest $50MM Bearish asset shift on a huge down day. Note that this is not net of NAV changes. Accounting for the huge value shifts, we actually saw ample BULLISH asset shifts on a huge down day. This is a Sell and it's supported by the dip-buying by the least sophisticated traders. A bounce is to be expected, but it probably won't hold."

I would be curious of any trading changes the day after of such a "surprise" event.

What the bulls needed here was an early (scary) retest of yesterday's lows.

This should come later...maybe the first full week of March.

But then again, back in 1997, a day like Tuesday's marked a price bottom and a 300 point SPX rally into the summer of 1998.

Fib

[OEXCHAOS]

I'll advise, Fib.