3 replies to this topic

[arbman]

If the economy is slowing down the drillers will get punished with the lower oil prices, if the economy is going to do well, it will not happen without the lower oil prices. The drillers can not win. Same logic with the RUT, if the economy is doing well, the rates will not come down, if the economy is not doing well, the RUT should get punished from here... I am certainly not betting on another inflationary blow off though, in which case I will loose. I am not clear about the tech stocks since they've been more resilient, perhaps the selling has been already done on those over the past 12 months. So, if they actually go straight down from here, I will buy them. I also avoid buying anything else in the large caps yet, but I will buy later from April and on, hopefully with a further discount... Good luck, - kisa PS. as usual these are all IT trades. My portfolio composition is usually about 30% short, 60% long (or cash), 10% hedging with +/- 5% variation. So these trades go toward the 30% short at the moment. I will slowly load up later toward the 60% long over the next 3 months. I am rarely day trade and all of my positions are usually leveraged, that's why I am usually very patient. When the right time comes, I really go in...

[jawndissedi]

If the economy is slowing down the drillers will get punished with the lower oil prices, if the economy is going to do well, it will not happen without the lower oil prices. The drillers can not win. Same logic with the RUT, if the economy is doing well, the rates will not come down, if the economy is not doing well, the RUT should get punished from here...

I am certainly not betting on another inflationary blow off though, in which case I will loose. I am not clear about the tech stocks since they've been more resilient, perhaps the selling has been already done on those over the past 12 months. So, if they actually go straight down from here, I will buy them. I also avoid buying anything else in the large caps yet, but I will buy later from April and on, hopefully with a further discount...

Good luck,
- kisa



PS. as usual these are all IT trades. My portfolio composition is usually about 30% short, 60% long (or cash), 10% hedging with +/- 5% variation. So these trades go toward the 30% short at the moment. I will slowly load up later toward the 60% long over the next 3 months. I am rarely day trade and all of my positions are usually leveraged, that's why I am usually very patient. When the right time comes, I really go in...

RUT is my favorite index short position, followed by MID. Notice how they went nowhere today while all eyes were on the "bounce" in the DJIA and SPX. It's called distracting 'em while you distribute. Every con man understands this technique . . .

Edited by jawndissedi, 28 February 2007 - 04:12 PM.

[Cirrus]

If the economy is slowing down the drillers will get punished with the lower oil prices, if the economy is going to do well, it will not happen without the lower oil prices. The drillers can not win. Same logic with the RUT, if the economy is doing well, the rates will not come down, if the economy is not doing well, the RUT should get punished from here...

I am certainly not betting on another inflationary blow off though, in which case I will loose. I am not clear about the tech stocks since they've been more resilient, perhaps the selling has been already done on those over the past 12 months. So, if they actually go straight down from here, I will buy them. I also avoid buying anything else in the large caps yet, but I will buy later from April and on, hopefully with a further discount...

Good luck,
- kisa



PS. as usual these are all IT trades. My portfolio composition is usually about 30% short, 60% long (or cash), 10% hedging with +/- 5% variation. So these trades go toward the 30% short at the moment. I will slowly load up later toward the 60% long over the next 3 months. I am rarely day trade and all of my positions are usually leveraged, that's why I am usually very patient. When the right time comes, I really go in...

kisa,

I would agree but what if key emerging market economies continue growing while the US economy slows but doesn't enter a recession?

I think a recession is exactly what the Fed doesn't want. They want low LT rates until the housing crunch blows over. A recession would really hurt the dollar IMHO--the market would smell ST rate reduction.

[arbman]

Cirrus, I don't think this market even discounted any slow down yet. We are barely 3-4% down from the all time highs on many indices. By the time, the official figures acknowledge that the economy is slowing down, it will be a lot cheaper, imho. This market used up everything it could from the excess liquidity to cheap oil, you name it, to push higher over the past 10 months only to hear the worst news at the top in Feb, there was no room for higher prices. I think any surprise will be to the downside for the next few weeks to months... This excess liquidity argument is so widely known and advertised that I am very suspicious that it is true anymore. Not only there was clear divergence in the small caps during this rally, my own liquidity measures are now showing a rapid decline and it is from the all time highs too... The bubbles are created with the gov't support, you can not create a bubble with the gov't backing and at this point, I see all of the central banks reining on the liquidity and there are clear sounds of cracks all over the place from the sub-prime mortgages to the commodities. People are still not looking at the numbers hard enough, imho... - kisa