3 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

Despite all the bear bashing done by them. Lets concentrate on where we think this will stop. I've already heard talking heads on CNBC say "no more than 5%". I tend to disagree. My "guess" is at least 10%, probably somewhere closer to 15%. I also think we will have a bounce fairly soon to stabilize, but we will start going downhill incrementally (ie slower declines vs faster declines), which will once again accelerate into a final melt down which may occur weeks from now. The 15% figure is from a large amount of margin to be worked off, large number of long futures positions to be liquidated. Then there's a time period for people to turn bearish. So far, people are trying to buy the dip. Way too early, IMO. Everyone's going to point to sentiment and say how bearish it was relative to previous bottoms. But this is not your typical correcton, so trying to compare it to that, IMO, will likely not prove out. Qs at 42.50 is a key pivot. Its where a ton of futures were loaded up, according to my study of COT.

[OEXCHAOS]

Heck, the sentiment isn't even Bearish yet. I don't know what Jason was looking at, but he missed a ton of dip buying. Mark

[dcengr]

Heck, the sentiment isn't even Bearish yet. I don't know what Jason was looking at, but he missed a ton of dip buying.

Mark

Everyone's comparing this to the previous corrections. This is not your typical correction if the price action isn't making that obvious. That's why people keep thinking we've hit bottom and are knife catching. Which is another reason why I think its going much much lower.

There's also many who think this sharp correction is part of a "bull market" correction, therefore, many are loading up as they figure the bull will fish them out later. That may be, but it could very well be that they capitulate at much lower lvls before that happens.

[OEXCHAOS]

By any technical measure, this IS a Bull Market Correction. What do Bull Market Corrections do? They shake the weak hands out of the market. Most of those dip buyers have to go. The 200 day SMA is reasonable. The 200-day EMA will probably bring a nice bounce. We'll see how the sentiment looks as we proceed. Mark