cycles
#1
Posted 01 March 2007 - 12:56 PM
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#2
Posted 01 March 2007 - 02:32 PM
#3
Posted 01 March 2007 - 03:43 PM
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#4
Posted 02 March 2007 - 12:38 AM
#5
Posted 02 March 2007 - 12:51 AM
What would change your mind? At least for the next 6-9 months... TIA
- kisa
kisa, not aire, but based on Hurst principles, you would need to see a shift from right translations to left translations and undershooting upside targets and meeting or overshooting downside targets. For now, with the high right translations we've had, sigma el must be up.
echo
#6
Posted 02 March 2007 - 02:37 AM
#7
Posted 02 March 2007 - 02:59 AM
I studied the Hurst's work, and I agree that there must be at least one decline with the left translations, I mean, a straight up in the next few days from here and then cascading decline. This would initiate much more bearish thoughts according to the Hurst's cyclical model. Of course, it needs to land below the recent cyclical lows too. I was more looking to support or resistance numbers according to Airedale's analysis. I guess an extended 20 wk cycle low coming below the previous one substantially at the middle of March can be an early indication... Thanks for the discussion...
kisa, problems posting, hope this goes thru.
one thing that would indicate a more bearish 6-9 months would be if the 20 wk fld downside projection had indicated a break below the 40 wk fld. this did not occur on any index chart. i expect the upcoming 20 wk low to be either a double bottom or a higher low, i lean toward the higher low as this week's 2.5 wk cycle bottom is IMO a large cycle straddle. it's very reminicent on a smaller scale to the 1987 crash, which also was a cycle straddle that showed high right translation on a nominal 80 wk cycle. our current "crash" came on a high right translated nominal 20 wk cycle.
1987 cycle phasing.....
Edited by airedale88, 02 March 2007 - 03:02 AM.
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#8
Posted 02 March 2007 - 05:28 AM