7 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

SPX met it's nominal 20 wk price projection of 1381 +/- 8 pts posted two nights ago with a low print of 1380.87. no larger cycle downside projections have been generated. added more long es at 1385. the time window for the 20 wk low is mid march, i believe that bottom will occur at a higher level.

[.Blizzard]

Do you expect new highs in the coming weeks/months or an Intermediate Top is in place?

[airedale88]

too soon to make that call. i've got a minor cycle price projection to 1426 +/- 5 pts. how well SPX does in achieving that will give info about any higher potential. longer term (after the 4.5 yr low), much higher. we are in a major cyclic bull market.

[arbman]

What would change your mind? At least for the next 6-9 months... TIA - kisa

[Echo]

What would change your mind? At least for the next 6-9 months... TIA

- kisa

kisa, not aire, but based on Hurst principles, you would need to see a shift from right translations to left translations and undershooting upside targets and meeting or overshooting downside targets. For now, with the high right translations we've had, sigma el must be up.

echo

[arbman]

I studied the Hurst's work, and I agree that there must be at least one decline with the left translations, I mean, a straight up in the next few days from here and then cascading decline. This would initiate much more bearish thoughts according to the Hurst's cyclical model. Of course, it needs to land below the recent cyclical lows too. I was more looking to support or resistance numbers according to Airedale's analysis. I guess an extended 20 wk cycle low coming below the previous one substantially at the middle of March can be an early indication... Thanks for the discussion...

[airedale88]

I studied the Hurst's work, and I agree that there must be at least one decline with the left translations, I mean, a straight up in the next few days from here and then cascading decline. This would initiate much more bearish thoughts according to the Hurst's cyclical model. Of course, it needs to land below the recent cyclical lows too. I was more looking to support or resistance numbers according to Airedale's analysis. I guess an extended 20 wk cycle low coming below the previous one substantially at the middle of March can be an early indication... Thanks for the discussion...

kisa, problems posting, hope this goes thru.

one thing that would indicate a more bearish 6-9 months would be if the 20 wk fld downside projection had indicated a break below the 40 wk fld. this did not occur on any index chart. i expect the upcoming 20 wk low to be either a double bottom or a higher low, i lean toward the higher low as this week's 2.5 wk cycle bottom is IMO a large cycle straddle. it's very reminicent on a smaller scale to the 1987 crash, which also was a cycle straddle that showed high right translation on a nominal 80 wk cycle. our current "crash" came on a high right translated nominal 20 wk cycle.

1987 cycle phasing.....

Edited by airedale88, 02 March 2007 - 03:02 AM.

[bobalou]

I'm getting flashes of 87 ,because of the #s..but it's NOT the same, in %..if so the big brake would come as the march low pointed out,in weeks,,the market would keep slideing down,hedge funds blow ups ,,margin calls,and then we have WWW,...I'm thinking we are just starting to get better size moves.a more normal moves in size.small move up in the VIX kind a thing.we do not have two 33% (2 x 100 %)moves into new ground..100 % move of some moves,is what I see,we would have to go up an outher 100 %,to get to 87 high ,in my bs view.