23 replies to this topic

[endisnear]

I don't doubt we can get a crash anymore after what happened
this week, nothing like this happened in 1995. I guess every
cycle is unique.

If the market does crash, I guess PPT theory will go by the wayside.


What concerns me is what the market sees coming economically
or catastrophically.

Question for anyone. Could there be so much liquidity that mkt won't drop too much more, earnings increase due to govt deficit spending although JP6 is hurting due to housing, subprime lending, etc, and dollar index dropping.

[LongShort168]

i kind of agree with you..but i want to have an edge...if it is "simple mathematics" i would like to have THE formula.. here is mine

[SemiBizz]

Don't confuse excess liquidity with excess debt. Japan carry trade blowup, sub prime all indicators of the trouble that is brewing... And don't get long too early like they did in May and June... I'm still waiting for our resident bull to proclaim the bottom is in and "we'll never see those low prices again in our lifetimes" Seriously though, on the short term basis. As long as you see the CNBC honkers encouraging you to buy, buy, buy... stay short.. When they say to be careful you can cover some for a bounce....

Edited by SemiBizz, 02 March 2007 - 10:06 PM.

[caspary]

Here's my tin hats 2 cents worth:

if they drop this mkt now, too many people start asking questions mainly about Iraq and Iran wars. You must keep JP6 complacent until it is time. Therefore, the market rallys from here. Crash comes this summer, set off by a major Atlantic hurricane. Long cubes 42.40s avg.

especially if housing starts being affected. Already investigations into NEW (down 30% AH). I think they will let markets go down, but in an orderly way. No way they will allow a crash and fear to enter the American psyche. You're right on about questions about Iraq etc. As long as people have their stocks and houses there will be few questions asked. IMHO. So even if we are to go down, it will be in several palatable steps . Straight down is no no.

[jawndissedi]

Zen appears to suffer from some sort of borderline personality disorder. Sad really. I bought QID back in December @ 51 prior to the dividend. I wrote about it here somewhere but I can't be bothered to search for it. As I noted then, I expect it to trade >100, and I will be there when it does. Where it goes in the meantime is of little concern to me. I have much larger positions in TWM and MZZ. The gains in the former are more or less off-setting the losses in the latter which I bought much too early. In the IT, I expect both RUT and MID to be cut in half. Unless you have studied the components of these indexes, this may sound far-fetched. But it actually wouldn't surprise me to see them take the same kind of hit that Naz took in 2000/01. What many people don't realize is that they were at all-time highs barely a week ago. How often do you get to short a volatile index like RUT from such breathtaking heights?

[eminimee]

You will soon want to be very long.....
....and CLK...something very similar to what's going on happened in 94.
It's just going to feel a little worse... in percentage terms ...it will be very similar....and pattern will be just a little different.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX...4425&r=1710

I've detailed my oex:spx ratio theory several times...won't bore you all again.

[jawndissedi]

What concerns me is what the market sees coming economically
or catastrophically.

One of the things life experience has taught me is that sometimes you have pay attention to people even when you dislike them. This week, Bill Fleckenstein is one of those people. I expect that the simple mention of his name will provoke snorts of outrage from many here -- the fact is that he is a permabear and has been wrong and wronger in many of his forecasts. However, he wrote this very astute article about the difference between price-discounting and price-discovery in markets. IMO, it is definitely worth reading.

MSN article

[A-ha]

Zen appears to suffer from some sort of borderline personality disorder. Sad really.

I bought QID back in December @ 51 prior to the dividend. I wrote about it here somewhere but I can't be bothered to search for it. As I noted then, I expect it to trade >100, and I will be there when it does. Where it goes in the meantime is of little concern to me.

I have much larger positions in TWM and MZZ. The gains in the former are more or less off-setting the losses in the latter which I bought much too early. In the IT, I expect both RUT and MID to be cut in half. Unless you have studied the components of these indexes, this may sound far-fetched. But it actually wouldn't surprise me to see them take the same kind of hit that Naz took in 2000/01. What many people don't realize is that they were at all-time highs barely a week ago. How often do you get to short a volatile index like RUT from such breathtaking heights?

he has no personality disorder, he just happened to be the ultimate fade. He was death serious about every trade and call he made. I watched him for years. He was so sucker that people finally started thinking he was acting. That is why he deleted his blog to erase the evidences so he can try some other time.

Today if they offer me the very best sentiment analysis every single day, I will not change fading Zen with it.

I love you Zen!

I am outta here, happy weekend everyone

Edited by xD&Cox, 02 March 2007 - 10:45 PM.

[jawndissedi]

You will soon want to be very long.....
....and CLK...something very similar to what's going on happened in 94.
It's just going to feel a little worse... in percentage terms ...it will be very similar....and pattern will be just a little different.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX...4425&r=1710

I've detailed my oex:spx ratio theory several times...won't bore you all again.

On a website that's devoted to the over-arching importance of financial market pricing, what I'm about to say is heresy: the economy is the dog, and stocks are the tail. When market cap grows to point where it is twice the size of annual GDP (as it is today), the tail can and does wag the dog for extended periods of time. Because of the historic amount of highly leveraged (and now imploding) speculation in residential real estate (a market that is largely outside of the sphere of influence of Wall Street), the dominance of the economy over the financial markets is being reasserted. The $6.5 trillion MBS market is in the process of unwinding along with $20-30 trillion in credit default swaps. (That's trillion with a "T", and not a typo.) Because CDS pricing is largely proprietary, there is no opportunity for you to analyze it -- technically or otherwise. As a friend of mine likes to say "Information is power, which is why you don't get any." By the time the true significance of what is happening becomes readily apparent, the markets will have already hit the wall -- HARD.

As always, JMHO.

[spielchekr]

Known locally in Delaware as Hwy. Cantgithurfirmheer

http://www.zentrader13.blogspot.com/



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