7 replies to this topic

[hiker]

those positioned short with QID or QQQQ are now euphoric

on such a note of euphoria, if a poll were run asking:

what will be the swing low for QQQQ between now and October?

I guess the majority that are actually trading Q's or related right now would answer 38-40 or below

let's see if support near $41 gets taken out between now and October

dreams and predictions are fine for those who trade based on beliefs....

Ted Burge has some good work here in 8 pages of charts on where price action is likely to run into support and resistance

$42.18 horizontal S/R is now what is being challenged ....and retest of last week's low...that 42.18 H level has been on the chart for years...

http://stockcharts.c...et?obj=ID445101

his other site -

http://www.tic-tac-d...RINDEXPAGE.html

http://www.tic-tac-d...ONENTSPAGE.html

Edited by hiker, 05 March 2007 - 08:56 AM.

[eminimee]

between 40.00 and 40.80 is my take...but I'm watching oex for a bottom

[greenie]

Hi Hiker, Thanks for the post. Where are the euphoric Qs shorts? All I see in this board are traders busy trying to catch a bottom here. Are you talking about sentiment in other blogs? I for one will be happy, if we get a bounce here. Just noticed that instead of going long QID, I went short QID on the last lot that I took on friday I was so busy shorting NDE and other subprime junks that I did not notice this error !! Thankfully, this was only a small lot, and others are being held from long back (you know when). Best to your trades, G.

[hiker]

greenie...what is keeping you in your short trades on tech...your prior stated belief q's are going to 19? in the meantime, 42.18 Horizontal support has not yet broken on a sustained basis...so you do not yet consider that a risk to your short position....you going to never book profits until you see Q's near 19? I entered long NQ and QLD near day's low...not planning on staying in this for long...have mucho $ in the position

Edited by hiker, 05 March 2007 - 09:55 AM.

[hiker]

have a large KLAC position long...note the two successive tests of Horiz support at 49.56 that held

[greenie]

Hello Hiker, No, I am not waiting for Qs 19 to cover, but my positions are not ST either to be traded at every turn. I divided my portfolio into two parts - half in stocks, which are traded for ST. For example, HOV, TXN and ATVI shorts that I had were exchanged for subprime junkies sometime back. Remaining half in indices are held for for IT swings. Regarding Qs, I am expecting a low near 32 around mid - end of April. We can buy QLD then, because Fed will be aggressively cutting rates and induce a 1-2 month rally. Of course, my trade will depend on the technical setup at that time. The other two important price points I will be watching are (i) trendline bottom joining Oct '05 and July '06 bottoms, and (ii) July '06 horizontal bottom. The ultimate low of 19 will come eventually. Why do you call others who do not agree with you 'dreams and predictions'? Everyone has a model and a plan based on that model. Best, Greenie

[hiker]

greenie... trading price is what is reliably profitable..and price moves within support and resistance which can be assessed based on fact as displayed in the multi-year chart. why trade based on something besides fact is my point? too much risk with that method.... I am not criticizing any other method...just taking a stand about its risk...I have traded beliefs instead of facts in my history of trading, and I know my experience with that method. anyone who believes they have a crystal ball is deceiving themselves

[greenie]

Thanks Hiker. You have much more experience than I do. I do not yet have a good feel for your method, but once I do, I am going to surely adapt it for my work. Reducing risk (rather than increasing profit) is my biggest priority. Rest is not life-threatening.