5 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Funny, but that last spike low was almost exactly 4 years ago.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1999-02-24&i=p84247077588&a=42930244&r=6710.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 06 March 2007 - 12:20 AM.

[pdx5]

Nice chart! Looks like the 55Week MA has been pretty good in predicting long term movement. If it crosses below 1350 by March 31st, it will be predicting a bear market!

[Rogerdodger]

To me, the red herring is the record volume. During the decline in 2001, 2002,2003, such volume marked bottoms. But also look at the volume pick up at the beginning of the 2000 sell-off. It that what we are seeing now? A pick-up in down volume at the beginning of the decline? Either way, I would expect a strong reaction when we get to that 55ma which is also some horizontal support.

[Tor]

Where is IYB anyway? I havent seen him post at all. Hope he is well, a good poster.

[A-ha]

To me, the red herring is the record volume.
During the decline in 2001, 2002,2003, such volume marked bottoms.

But also look at the volume pick up at the beginning of the 2000 sell-off.
It that what we are seeing now? A pick-up in down volume at the beginning of the decline?

Either way, I would expect a strong reaction when we get to that 55ma which is also some horizontal support.

I already told this to others who compared this volume and internal spike with those from the bear market
but I will repeat.

IMHO, those volume spikes during the decline in 2001, 2002,2003 were capitulation bottoms that came after lengthly declines.

This one has nothing to do with capitulation as the sell off came off the new highs, just like 2000.

This is called "Initiation" or "First trust"

Edited by xD&Cox, 06 March 2007 - 07:43 AM.

[Russ]

That big low was 4.3 years before this latest peak...it is a half cycle of Armstrong's 8.6 pi.

Funny, but that last spike low was almost exactly 4 years ago.