2 replies to this topic

[greenie]

....has been mowed better than I expected. This is based on both sentimentrader.com and position poll tonight. Maybe one more day of rally (which may not be as strong as today) will do its job. If we get a 'Slamma Jamma' post, a rally would not be necessary (Dear God, please...).


This is my rationalization of what could be going on. Due to last nine months' bad experiences, bears are now scared of yet another rally to new highs. During the same period, no bull, who forecasted rally to new highs lost money. So, any small rally can change sentiment from bearishness to bullishness disproportionately.


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&i=t39436890570&r=3905&.png

In the context of May '06 decline, today's rise is possibly similar to the pause around May 14.

Edited by greenie, 06 March 2007 - 08:36 PM.

[jawndissedi]

Maybe a little more upside tomorrow -- I certainly hope so. I was buying TWM with both hands today, but will gratefully buy more ~70. Thursday will most likely be an inside day which will leave the market going into the most important data release of the month with its chin out. Yesterday's ISM report on the service sector already suggests surprising potential weakness in the employment report. If layoffs in construction and other real estate-related sectors show up as well, Friday could be very, very ugly.

[OEXCHAOS]

I say, down today, into Thursday, then it finds its feet and rallies into Friday. Assuming, of course that the sentiment comes in as I think it will. We got some pretty bearish readings, greenie. Not like June, but pretty dramatic shifts. Basically, one more shot down to get some slightly better Bearishness, then chop it up and sideways for next Friday, then down for the next leg. I'll post some more on the sentiment later. Mark