9 replies to this topic

[PorkLoin]

For the very broadly-based Wilshire index, it's already rallied into "the zone of the prior fourth wave of one lesser degree" -- most of the action for March 1. The top of that, 14300, is obvious resistance, plus most of the day on February 28 was spent in that area. If there is more downside to come, we've already done enough in terms of price and time for a decent corrective move.

Doug

Edited by PorkLoin, 08 March 2007 - 11:14 AM.

[arbman]

Doug, I also see the same count... so beware

[da_cheif]

For the very broadly-based Wilshire index, it's already rallied into "the zone of the prior fourth wave of one lesser degree" -- most of the action for March 1. The top of that, 14300, is obvious resistance, plus most of the day on February 28 was spent in that area. If there is more downside to come, we've already done enough in terms of price and time for a decent corrective move.

Doug

looks identical to the 5 waves down into the late 1990 low.......as u recall.....a number of ew experts predicted that after 3 waves up the market would fall appart......

[PorkLoin]

All right, then, Kisa -- I know I'm in good company. This really is "in general," but getting above the highs of Feberuary 28 would tilt things to a more bullish scenario, in my opinion. 8 days of decline, and then 3 of corrective rally - could be well set to go down again if the bear is in control. Doug

[da_cheif]

THIS look familiar???...1990 V bottom...

http://img402.images...1990latemq6.gif

[slatedrake]

THIS look familiar???...1990 V bottom...

http://img402.images...1990latemq6.gif

Yes, but it looks like we would be around the 8.15.90 time frame, with two subsequent lower lows still to come...

[PorkLoin]

Chief, I hear you, and I remember being incorrectly bearish at the time. Not due to EW counts -- I forget why, actually, but ya certainly never know for sure.

From what Stockcharts will give me, I think the 1990 count is more problematic than the current one, which isn't that perfect itself. In December 1990 we did get above the analogous zone, though.



I think we need to see more market action. Maybe we've seen a fast low put in -- my gut feeling is that the rally from last summer (and from earlier times) is not over. There's really a nice upward channel in force with room for the market to go either way here.

Best,

Doug

[da_cheif]

the hard part is being long.......looking for new highs....

[PorkLoin]

Da Chief: the hard part is being long.......looking for new highs....

Could be, though I've sold nothing. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that we've had "A" down, and now are correcting in "B" with "C" yet to come. I'd say wave C would make it even harder to be long.


Doug

[Jnavin]

C is likely for new lows because, as DC and others have pointed out, we haven't seen sufficient fear yet. But da chief is right to say ew never no. Ew don't.