3 replies to this topic

[greenie]

I started a blog here just to keep my things in focus.



http://www.traders-t...?...;blogid=29

Based on the above fundamental context, here is my model for next few months.

1. The market will now recognize that a recession is coming and will price it in. Until the recognition is complete and the media starts to shout about rate cut, the decline continues (that's what happened in 2000).

2. The next rally will come, when rate cut is imminent - just like in late Dec. 2000. I am expecting mid April-early May to be the time.

3. The current decline (first stage) will completely wipe out the gain of bear killer rally and go twice as much. That is what happened in 2000 and 1990. That is where my may target of QQQQ=32 comes from.

I am currently short (MZZ), and will cover them, when internals make higher low, and media headlines have the following tone:

"Unless Fed cuts interest rates right now, it will be too late and economy will be in recession."

The shorts on individual stocks (NDE, DSL, MICC) will be managed on a shorter term basis.

Edited by greenie, 11 March 2007 - 12:56 PM.

[SemiBizz]

That is where my may target of QQQQ=32 comes from

Go back and look at the history of the QQQ/QQQQ. This stock has only traded on a day with a price of 32.00 1/4 of 1% of the more than 1000 days since the crash in 2000. My read is if 32.00 is broken then volume spike low of 30.04 will be tested (6/6/03). You could look back at my posts from May on BRCM, MRVL and AMD about how you can be misled by using MAs by not looking at support within a given price range. (No base built in price range) What the QQQQ is saying is it is uncomfortable in that range. Look especially closely to what happened to QQQQ after 9/11/01. Note the gap down quick plunge thru 32.00 on 9/17 when the market reopened. Later on the bounce, they had to gap it up and out of the area to hold it...



Take a good look because 32 is not the likely low, I think it's more likely 30.04 test...

Edited by SemiBizz, 11 March 2007 - 01:34 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

News headlines look pretty good:

"We have hit bottom and are on the upswing." - Secretary of Labor.
"The worst is over without a doubt." - Secretary of Labor.
"There is no cause to worry." Secretary of the Treasury.
"The Government's business is in sound condition." Secretary of the Treasury
"Reports to the Department of Commerce indicate that business is in a satisfactory condition, Secretary of the Treasury said today." - News item.

"Secretary of the Treasury and officials of the Commerce Department today denied rumors that a severe depression in business and industrial activity was impending, which had been based on a mistaken interpretation of a review of industrial and credit conditions issued earlier in the day by the Federal Reserve Board." -- New York Times

"Maintenance of a general high level of business in the United States during December was reviewed today by the Secretary of Commerce as an indication that American industry had reached a point where a break in New York stock prices does not necessarily mean a national depression." -- Associated Press dispatch.

"American labor may now look to the future with confidence." - Secretary of Labor.

"Looking to the future I see in the further acceleration of science continuous jobs for our workers." - Charles M. Schwab.

Oh! Wait a minute.
Those were 1929-1930 headlines!
...My Bad.

From Tim Wood. He's still looking for a 4 year low.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 11 March 2007 - 01:42 PM.

[greenie]

Stupid me - forgot to press publish button.

Now, all the entries are visible.

http://www.traders-t...?...g&blogid=29

That is where my may target of QQQQ=32 comes from

Go back and look at the history of the QQQ/QQQQ. This stock has only traded on a day with a price of 32.00 1/4 of 1% of the more than 1000 days since the crash in 2000. My read is if 32.00 is broken then volume spike low of 30.04 will be tested (6/6/03). You could look back at my posts from May on BRCM, MRVL and AMD about how you can be misled by using MAs by not looking at support within a given price range. (No base built in price range) What the QQQQ is saying is it is uncomfortable in that range. Look especially closely to what happened to QQQQ after 9/11/01. Note the gap down quick plunge thru 32.00 on 9/17 when the market reopened. Later on the bounce, they had to gap it up and out of the area to hold it...

Take a good look because 32 is not the likely low, I think it's more likely 30.04 test...

Thanks SB. My target is not very precise at this moment. It is just out there to keep in mind, how severe the decline can be. When we get to that range, I will monitor (a) internals, (b ) volume and © media sentiment to exit.

Right now, I am patiently waiting